What's behind Putin's summer offensive?

Observers note that Russian forces are now advancing more rapidly and intensifying attacks on areas in eastern Ukraine, particularly in Donetsk region, still held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Russia’s summer offensive may aim to achieve several objectives sought by the Kremlin.

The first objective remains unchanged and was set by Putin back in February 2022 when he launched the so-called major invasion of Ukraine: to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which Russia already referred to at the time as so-called "people’s republics."

The second objective may involve creating a so-called buffer zone, which Putin has already named as an important goal of this war.

“The buffer zone is merely a cover for Russia’s broader ambitions. On one hand, it's clear that amid Ukraine's growing ability to strike Russian territory - not only with drones but potentially with Western-supplied missiles - Russia’s political and military leadership wants to reduce the threat to its capital. By pushing the front line farther from Moscow, they aim to lower the risk of direct strikes on the city.”

But creating a so-called buffer zone isn’t Russia’s only goal. When the Kremlin occupies part of a Ukrainian region, it can declare that territory eligible for a so-called referendum on joining the Russian Federation or proclaim it a "independent state" for an hour - just as it did in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Notably, in Zaporizhzhia, even the regional capital was never under Russian control.

A similar referendum was being prepared by Russian authorities in the Kharkiv oblast when they briefly took control of Kupiansk. Notably, the city was declared the temporary regional center of Kharkiv region - clearly with the intention of eventually gaining control over the entire region.

All current talk about a buffer zone may reflect Moscow’s intent to expand the occupied territory of Ukraine and prepare it for further annexation. So when Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation at the Istanbul talks, warned the Ukrainian side that Russia might soon demand not five, but seven or eight Ukrainian regions, he wasn’t lying. These are, at the very least, the objectives Putin is setting for his army.

The third key point behind Russia’s current offensive is pressure on the Ukrainian delegation in negotiations. It’s a push on Ukraine’s leadership to accept unfavorable terms and to believe there’s no alternative but capitulation to the Russian regime. This is precisely what the massive bombardment preceding the offensive aimed to achieve - destroying Ukraine’s military and technological capabilities, demoralizing the population, and convincing Ukrainians they have no choice but surrender. The hope is that this pressure will lead the public to push the Ukrainian government to accept whatever terms Putin sets in a so-called memorandum or in future negotiation rounds - if they happen at all.

“But Russia’s summer offensive also carries risks for Putin. First, Russian forces may fail to achieve the results Kremlin expects, once again showing that since 2023 the Russia-Ukraine war has been at a stalemate, with the front line barely changing. This situation could persist for many more years, leading not only to Ukraine’s exhaustion but also Russia’s, which could seriously threaten the survival of Putin’s regime itself.”

Second, as we see, Russian attempts to demoralize the Ukrainian population are failing and instead strengthen the resolve of those who believe Ukraine must not accept the humiliating terms of capitulation proposed by the Russian leadership.

Third, Russia is seriously losing ground geopolitically. The massive attacks on Ukrainian territory have not only sparked angry reactions from European leaders - as Moscow expected - but also unexpectedly strong criticism from the U.S. President Donald Trump. Putin sees his dialogue with Trump as a major diplomatic achievement and wants to maintain it despite the ongoing war. Trump’s current rebukes and new deadlines - like the two-week ultimatum for Putin to prove his willingness for peace - are certainly unwelcome for the Russian president.

If the Russian offensive intensifies, it may not convince Trump that Putin wants peace, but it will at least show the American president that the whole world sees him as enabling Putin to continue the war comfortably. Such a hit to his reputation is something Trump cannot and does not want to accept.

In this situation, we must realize that Putin is taking a big risk by trying to gain too much from the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war - especially after Donald Trump’s presidential victory and the start of a new round of Russian-American talks. His attempts to seize more Ukrainian territory may only complicate these dialogues and weaken his own position in the war.

Source

About the author: Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, laureate of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.