When will Russia start large-scale offensive?

Russia has become more active across the entire front and has had some successes. In the Zaporizhzhia, Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk areas, for instance, the number of assaults has again reached 200 per day. This is essentially the next phase of the large-scale offensive.

Could the Russians open new fronts and break into Sumy region? I doubt it. The main tactic of the Russian forces now is to find weak spots and quickly shift forces there. The increased activity across the front aims to identify such spots. As a result, Russia is forced to spread its reserves across the already existing battlefronts, especially considering their significant losses. 

It took them almost nine months to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region, and even then, they relied on North Korean forces due to a shortage of their own. Therefore, the possibility of additional forces being deployed or opening new fronts seems unlikely.

The increased activity is, of course, connected to negotiations. This is Putin's way of showing that everything is fine on his side and that he will continue fighting, or as he put it, "finish off" the Ukrainian Armed Forces. 

In fact, everything remains relatively stable. Russia is paying with thousands of lives for minimal gains, so nothing new here.

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About the author: Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, and columnist.  

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.