What Russia’s military drills in Belarus could be hiding — potential scenarios for Ukraine, Baltics in September

Ukrainian military expert Mykhailo Samus told Espreso TV that Putin is likely to leverage the diplomatic and informational success of the Alaska meeting with Trump to intensify pressure on Ukraine’s frontlines and, to amplify the effect, to intimidate Europeans with the threat of an attack on the Baltic states under the cover of Zapad-2025 drills.

Samus notes that preparations for Zapad-2025 are unfolding against the backdrop of the anticipated Trump-Putin summit. “The political logic is straightforward: to show that Russia can create a crisis on NATO’s eastern flank at any moment and use this threat to pressure both the U.S. and Europe into weakening support for Ukraine,” he said. “The history of previous ‘Zapad’ exercises shows they have a distinctly offensive character, always aimed at crushing military groupings in the western strategic direction.”

Analyzing the current context, Samus outlines four possible scenarios for September 2025:

First scenario – show of force: Zapad-2025 stays within its declared scope — defending the Union State from a hypothetical adversary, practicing interoperability between Russian and Belarusian troops, and coordinating logistics, intelligence, and command systems. Even so, the drills could serve as a tool for strategic pressure: threatening Ukraine from the north, simulating preparations to seize the Suwałki Gap against NATO, and providing a backdrop for U.S.-EU negotiations on ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

Second scenario – limited offensive operation against the Baltics or Poland: Under the guise of Zapad-2025, Russia could suddenly seize the Suwałki Gap — vital for the Baltics’ land connection to the rest of NATO — to create military and political shock. This would force the Alliance to choose between immediately invoking Article 5 and engaging in combat, or seeking a compromise at the cost of its credibility. Such an operation could be accompanied by cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and border provocations.

Third scenario – large-scale escalation against Ukraine: Using Zapad-2025 as a launchpad for a new northern front, with strikes from Belarus toward Volyn, Rivne, or even Kyiv region. The goal would be to cut Ukraine’s western supply lines, create a fresh threat to Kyiv and other northern areas, and force Ukraine’s military to divert significant forces from Donbas and the south.

Fourth scenario – complex hybrid operation: Combining a large-scale show of force, localized provocations on NATO’s borders, escalation on Ukraine’s northern front, cyberattacks, and information operations. The aim: to create multiple simultaneous crises, stretching Western attention and resources. The Baltics and Poland would feel under threat; Ukraine would hold forces in the north; narratives about an “inevitable war” between NATO and Russia would grow; and political pressure at negotiation tables would intensify. “This scenario is relatively likely,” Samus warns. “Alongside cyberattacks, information-psychological operations, and heightened Russian agent activity in Europe, these actions could destabilize NATO members and erode Allied unity, leading to weaker support for Ukraine.”

According to Samus, Zapad-2025 is being used by Russia as a multi-purpose tool of strategic uncertainty: the variety of possible scenarios leaves broad room for maneuver. “The fear of a second February 2022 is being cultivated by Russia to reduce our resilience. At present, however, a renewed attack on Ukraine from Belarus is one of the least likely scenarios. More realistic is a hybrid operation paired with active information-psychological measures against both Ukraine and the West,” he said.

Still, Samus concludes, the military threats stemming from Russian-Belarusian strategic maneuvers should not be underestimated. The Trump-Putin meeting could create new global and geopolitical conditions that may alter the context, character, and objectives of Zapad-2025.