ISW assesses risks of invasion of Ukraine from Transnistria

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued report on this.

Ukrainian officials have said that the probability of a Russian ground attack on Ukraine from the territory of Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, is low following reports that the Transnistrian authorities may call or organize a referendum on annexation to Russia on February 28.

ISW analysts emphasize that they have not observed any indications suggesting that the limited Russian force grouping in Transnistria may attempt to conduct ground operations that could threaten Ukraine.

They added that they do not believe this group of forces is capable of launching a significant ground operation against Ukraine.

On February 22, ISW issued a warning forecast and estimated that Transnistrian officials could call for a referendum on joining the Russian Federation to support Russian hybrid operations aimed at political and social destabilization of Moldova. However, this warning concerned the threat to Moldova's stability, not the situation in Ukraine.

• A "congress of deputies of all levels" is scheduled for February 28 in Tiraspol. The so-called Transnistrian politicians do not hide the fact that the congress will be about Russia. At the same time, Ukraine's Ambassador to Moldova Marko Shevchenko said that, according to his information, the issue of Transnistria's accession to Russia is not currently on the agenda.