War will continue as long as Russia remains capable of fighting

On one thing I agree with them — the government is ineffective. But the government "beyond the curb," with the raging Putin, is far more evil.

In order not to get tangled up in the pile of news about negotiations, security guarantees "100% complete" and the current state of the negotiation process, let me remind you of several important things.

What took place in Abu Dhabi is not negotiations. Even in official press releases it is called "consultations." Given that representatives of military intelligence are participating from the Russian side, it is mostly about gathering and exchanging information.

Therefore, in the current format of meetings that we see now, the war will not end.

For ending the war, territories are of secondary importance. Conditionally, Ukraine's exit to the 1991 borders by itself will not stop Russian missile strikes. Just as the hypothetical displacement of the Ukrainian military from the Donetsk region will not stop the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attempts to return these territories.

"The only thing that has real significance for a ceasefire is security guarantees. That is, clear mechanisms that will make the resumption of war impossible after it has been stopped."

Such guarantees can be Ukraine's membership in NATO or the deployment of military garrisons of allied countries. Also, these can be new fortified areas built along the demarcation line, and the creation in Ukraine of a powerful missile program that will ensure that for every missile strike on Kyiv or Kharkiv there will be an analogous strike on Moscow or Yekaterinburg. In other words, security guarantees must create high risks of repeated invasion, which Russia will no longer be able to undertake without the threat of receiving a response.

That is precisely why Ukraine's possible accession to the EU is not a security guarantee, since it carries no military risks for Russia. On the other hand, the creation of a united EU army on the basis of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the financing, armament and staffing of which will be provided jointly by all European countries, can be such a guarantee.

"Zelenskyy's words about the readiness of security guarantees "100%" look more like part of a media campaign."

In the absence of official information regarding these "100%," one can only refer to insiders from Western media who say that the guarantees will be "a reflection of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty." But what exactly this means is unclear, since Article 5 does not contain direct obligations for the U.S. to strike in response to an attack on another country. And even if such a clause appears in the agreement, it is difficult to imagine how Putin will agree that Ukraine's security conditions as a result of the war he unleashed will become stronger than they were before it.

The question of ending the war, as before, depends entirely on one person.

The problem is that Putin still believes that in Ukraine everyone is waiting for the Russian army and is ready to endure cold and shelling for this. He continues to publicly tell how in occupied Ukrainian villages Russians are greeted with flowers. He sincerely believes that his army is doing everything possible to avoid casualties among the civilian population. That is, he is not ashamed of this war, because in his entourage there is no one left who could say anything that does not correspond to his expectations.

Literally yesterday at a meeting with the governor of the Leningrad region, Putin said that he is being asked to abandon further strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. In response, the governor asked him to continue, because "this is very important." Moreover, at the end of December, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that their goal is "a friendly Ukraine where the rights of Russian speakers are restored." As he says: "we just need to try to bring this moment closer."

That is, Putin sees no moral, political, economic, or military reasons to stop the war. Everyone around him supports in him the illusion that everything is going according to plan, Kupiansk has been "liberated," and HIMARS and Patriots have been destroyed many times more than were released in all world history. Putin's war is completely built on lies, which Putin himself has ultimately believed.

All this means that the war will continue as long as Russia is able to wage war. And that is precisely why our military's actions depend on much more than any meetings.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Ukrainian lawmaker.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.