U.S. recognition of Crimea: worse than Budapest Memorandum

Why are the United States even asking us what to do? They can do it without us.

Because it will be like with the Minsk agreements: Russia, together with the "mediator," will present the "agreement" for approval by the UN Security Council. The package will include a clause about the recognition by the U.S. of Crimea as part of Russia. Then, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, the U.S. and Russia will put the question to others: vote for peace, especially since (!!!) Ukraine has also agreed to this package.

“Then, Russia and the U.S., based on the UN Security Council resolution, will claim everywhere that internationally recognized borders of Russia include Crimea. What Ukraine thinks and recognizes in its Constitution won't affect the international recognition of borders.”

This is not even a multi-step maneuver. The U.S. understands that Ukraine will never recognize Crimea as part of Russia and will never change its Constitution. However, the U.S. and Russia together can push for an international interpretation of Ukraine's borders without Crimea - if only Ukraine agrees to seemingly small concession and "allows" the U.S. to do what they could do without Ukraine's "permission."

In fact, such a “permission” would later turn out to be a huge strategic mistake, at least as big as the Budapest Memorandum.

Source

About the author. Dmytro Shulha, Director of the Europe and the World Program at the International Renaissance Foundation

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.