U.S.-China talks: is Ukraine ready for them?

What are these talks about?

First and foremost, about how to avoid a direct military clash between the two hegemons. This is not Yalta, where Trump and Xi would redraw borders on maps. These are talks about the rules of the game in the new trade, technology, and logistics realities of the 21st century. And the nullification of the WTO will be just one of the first steps in this war.

How is this different from the Cold War?

The Cold War involved a strict division of the world between two hegemons, each of which had, in essence, unlimited policing powers in their respective territories.

“The current situation is radically different: neither the U.S. nor China, at least for now, want to fight for their allies. They are leaving this prerogative to regional leaders.”

So, instead of a deterministic and rigidly divided world, where countries that did not join the movement were small pockets, we will have a very diffuse world with strange alliances and dual allegiances (on the one hand to the hegemonic country, and on the other to the regional leader).

Watersheds

De facto, the war for regional leadership has already begun. At this stage, the dividing line between one world and the other will not be values or even economics (loans). The marker of belonging to one pole or the other will be who you buy weapons from.

Are we ready for the new realities?

We are entering the U.S. - China negotiations with a negative balance in China and a minimally positive one in the U.S. I have always believed that lowering relations with China to such a low level is a mistake.

“We must do everything we can to bring our relations to at least a neutral level, because the question of ending the war will now definitely depend on the negotiations between Beijing and Washington.”

As for Washington, we also face very serious problems. The fact is, our diplomacy lacks system and operates in what could be called cavalry-style raids: a problem arises, our team arrives, the problem diminishes, and then the team leaves.

Let me give you a small example: three months have passed since we announced the replacement of our ambassador (I would like to pay tribute to the work of Oksana Markarova). We even named three candidates, and one of them, Olha Stefanishyna, was even appointed as the president's special representative for U.S. affairs (they say she is now preparing to work in the security guarantees group and is expected to take an active part in it). I am saying all this because the pause has dragged on, and it is extremely important for us to begin the complex, routine, consistent work that is often invisible but best contributes to results.

Washington is one of the most personified cities in the world: personal relationships matter much more here than in Riyadh or Beijing. And the current policy of “cavalry raids” is a good one and has proven its effectiveness in times of crisis. But now it's time to run another marathon. Because the U.S.-China negotiations are definitely a marathon, if not a triathlon.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.