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US ATACMS, threat of Russian offensive on Kharkiv, situation at front. Weekly military results

30 March, 2024 Saturday

Today, a large scope of work is underway to build fortifications and equip positions to minimize the risks of a Russian offensive on Kharkiv. We should prepare for the worst


Threat of Russian offensive on Kharkiv

In an interview with Ukrinform, the chief of Ukraine's armed forces Oleksandr Syrskyi spoke about Ukraine's preparations for a possible Russian offensive on Kharkiv. He said that all risks are being assessed and work is underway to build fortifications and equip positions.

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Brown, also assessed the hostilities in Ukraine. According to him, expectations of a major Russian offensive are somewhat exaggerated. It is unlikely that the Russians will be able to sustain a major offensive with their resources. Analyzing the Russian offensive, which began in October last year and continues to this day, it is worth noting that the occupation forces sent a lot of personnel, equipment, and weapons, but in return they got a meat grinder on the front line. Brown believes that all this time Ukraine has been conducting a fairly effective defense. The Russian enemy has made virtually no progress on the front. However, Russia's offensive is likely to be expected and Ukraine should prepare for the worst. 

The Ukrainian side insists on destroying the resources that Russia is currently preparing for offensive actions. They should be targeted in the areas where Ukrainian troops are currently holding the line, in particular to the west of Avdiivka, near Marinka, Kupiansk, and Vuhledar.

Long-range ATACMS missiles for Ukraine

General Brown says that the strikes of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles on Russian refineries have somewhat led to a reassessment of the Russian response. Now it will be easier for the United States to transfer ATACMS to Ukraine. This is the first time this phrase has been used in the American press in a long time. If the packages with American aid are unblocked, Ukraine can expect to receive long-range ATACMS missiles.

Ukraine expects ATACMS with a range of 300 kilometers, and they can have different warheads. The Americans are giving up cluster missiles, but high-explosive fragmentation missiles are also extremely suitable for destroying Russian supply centers and command posts.

Situation at front

Map of fighting in Avdiivka sector

Actually, Ukraine has three difficult frontline areas. To the west of Avdiivka, the Russian army is still trying to advance, concentrating a large force. In the area from Berdychi, Semenivka, Orlivka, Tonenke and further down, the Russians are now trying to break through from Orlivka, which they occupied, to Semenivka, where heavy fighting continues. The Russian troops are also trying to completely capture Berdychi. However, the 47th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 3rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, which is currently holding Semenivka, are effectively operating there. The dynamics have somewhat decreased, at the expense of significant Russian losses. 

The Russian occupation forces are trying in vain to capture Novomykhailivka. This section of the front is extremely important for them to reach Kurakhove and try to develop an offensive from the north to Vuhledar.

Near Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, not far from Kreminna, Russia is trying to push Ukrainian units across the Zherebets River. Quite intense fighting is taking place there. Russia wants to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces units out of the area. The defense line has been held for a long time. All three of these areas will continue to be extremely tense.

Map of fighting in Lyman sector

Having assessed the situation on the front line, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi said that Russia has a certain advantage in numbers, aviation, and in the guided aerial bombs. However, the main task facing the Ukrainian Armed Forces now is to hold the territories, inflict maximum damage on the Russian enemy, and prepare reserves. This is what the Armed Forces are doing now. 

When asked whether Ukraine really needs to mobilize 500,000 personnel, he said that an audit has been conducted. The number of mobilized and volunteers will be much less, but he does not announce the figures. Every man of military age should understand that the existence of Ukraine will depend on his position. According to him, certain brigades are being audited, the number of people who will perform duties on the front line is changing, and rotation is taking place. Twice in the interview he reiterated that the priority is to ensure all conditions for the combat operations to be effective. Saving human lives is of utmost importance.

Syrskyi says that the decision to withdraw from Avdiivka was made given that Russia had certain advantages in air power and manpower. But Avdiivka could have been held if Ukraine had enough artillery and air defense systems. It is important to note that 47,186 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in this section of the frontline. Syrskyi has a calm and rational approach to understanding the situation on the front line. He believes that not everything depends on the military. Society must also be responsible. This applies to mobilization, fortifications and other components of security and defense.

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