'Unrealistic numbers': expert calls Russia’s 1,000-drone attack on Ukraine scenario implausible

Military expert Dmytro Sniehyrov expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.

“We will either refute or analyze the information published by The Economist regarding Russia’s ability to strike Ukraine simultaneously with 500, and even up to 1,000, drones. I have serious doubts about this kind of information. Let me explain why. In 2023, Russia pompously opened drone manufacturing facilities in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. At that time, they had the capacity to produce up to 6,000 drones per year. Even if they are currently scaling up production, the maximum would be around 10,000 to 12,000. I do not rule out the possibility of producing Geran-2 drones, an equivalent of the Iranian Shahed 136, in other regions of the Russian Federation, but this is so-called localized production. You must agree that compared to the industrial capacity of the facility in Tatarstan, this does not match those numbers,” he said.

Dmytro Sniehyrov noted that The Economist’s report appeared at the time of the most massive attack on Kyiv. In his opinion, such information creates or aims to create certain moods in Ukrainian society: “In professional terms, this is called ‘active operations in the information space to shape public opinion.’ In other words, they are trying to impose the idea, alongside Russia’s attack using 300 drones, that this is not the maximum number of strike weapons Russia can use.”

“The drone strikes by the Main Directorate of Development of the Ministry of Defense targeted a factory in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan this week, the very facility producing those drones. Ukrainian drones also struck a plant that manufactured batteries, including ones for drones. So the question arises: what is The Economist trying to tell us? If the Ukrainian side, through its active operations on enemy territory, is minimizing Russia’s ability to scale up production. It’s also worth mentioning the Ukrainian drone attack on the plant in Saransk, the only facility in Russia that produces fiber optics for FPV drones. Let’s do the math: 1,000 drones per day for 30 days. The question is, these are unrealistic numbers cited by the respected agency. This is not the first time,” the expert noted.

• On May 26, The Economist reported that the main challenge for Ukraine’s air defense remains the sharp rise in Russian drone numbers. Russia can now produce 300 drones in under three days.