Ukraine's oil refinery strikes deal devastating blow to Russia's war machine, economy

These attacks have already affected the war and created long-term problems for the Kremlin with fuel, exports, and army financing.

In November 2025 alone, 41 strikes were carried out on legitimate military targets on the territory of the occupying country using both strike drones and ballistic weapons. These include stationary facilities — military-industrial complex enterprises as well as Russian oil refining facilities.

Ukraine's concentrated strike on oil refining has led to tangible economic consequences for Russia: domestic prices for gasoline and diesel have risen, fuel supply disruptions have occurred, and oil companies have suffered billions in losses. At the same time, export flows and budget revenues have decreased, hitting the Kremlin's financial capacity to continue the war.

"Ukrainian strikes on refineries have done more damage to Russia's economy than many packages of Western sanctions. This is a direct blow to the revenues that finance the war," stated former Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kyrylo Budanov.

Ukrainian military intelligence emphasizes that strikes on oil infrastructure hit the foundation of the Russian economy, not secondary sectors. The goal is not only short-term weakening but also long-term reduction of Russia's potential to wage large-scale military campaigns. 

"In fact, our strikes have made more of an impression than the effect of sanctions. This is simply mathematical truth. We have inflicted much greater damage to Russia's profits through direct action than any economic levers of influence on them that have been implemented so far," says Kyrylo Budanov.

Oil refining is a critical foundation for supplying the army with fuel, so strikes on refineries automatically affect the combat capability of Russian troops. Reduced processing volumes and fuel logistics disruptions complicate equipment movement, limit the intensity of operations, and increase the cost of maintaining Russian army groupings. Without a stable fuel supply, it's impossible to conduct offensive operations of the former scale.

Ukrainian command also emphasizes that target selection is carried out to minimize risk to the civilian population and focus on military and military-related infrastructure. The focus includes refineries, bases, terminals, and facilities directly connected to supplying the army and replenishing the war budget. 

Over the past few months, Ukrainian drones have hit a number of oil refineries in the European part of Russia:

• Syzran refinery;
• Volgograd refinery;
• Saratov refinery;
• Oil refinery in Ukhta;
• Refinery in Samara, 1,000 km from Ukraine;
• Krasnodar refinery;
• Ryazan refinery;
• Afipsky refinery;
• Ilsky refinery;
• Refinery in Ufa.

"The consequences of these strikes can be judged by statements from the Russian side itself. For instance, the increase in VAT from 20 to 22% is quite telling. This indicates that there is no longer money in the Russian budget to finance active operations in Ukraine."

The Russian budget depends approximately one-third on revenues from petrodollars, so the effectiveness of strikes on Russian refineries is more than evident.

The second point is the Russian Federation's budget for 2026. What does it indicate? According to Russian economists, the expenditure side has increased by 4% of GDP. This is approximately 1 trillion dollars that are not actually in the budget.

According to the Russian side itself, budget losses from Ukrainian drone and ballistic strikes on oil refining facilities are estimated at 100 billion dollars.

After the introduction of economic sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as successful attacks by Ukrainian weapons on oil refining and oil loading terminals, the Russian Federation has been forced to sell oil and petroleum products at a record discount of up to 40%.

Moreover, it's telling that even with such a discount, for example, Indian buyers have refused to purchase Russian oil. There is now talk of diversifying supplies, including from Saudi Arabia and other producing countries. The situation is similar with China: their refineries are not willing to purchase Russian oil even with record discounts.

Strikes on refineries have impacted the Russian Federation's military budget and the financing of programs for participants in the so-called "special military operation." For instance, authorities in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) announced the suspension of payments to "special military operation" participants. They officially state that they cannot afford to make material payments. And this is directly related to the fact that drones from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine have reached oil refining facilities on the territory of this federal subject. We're talking about a distance of over 2,000 km.

"As a result, the Russian Federation faces the question: what is the future fate of oil refining facilities? Let me remind you, there are no more than 40 of them on Russian territory. And according to estimates from the Russian side itself, about 40% of them have either partially or completely halted their production cycle."

A very telling example is the fate of the Ryazan oil refinery, one of the most technologically advanced refineries. Three waves of modernization were conducted there using Western technologies. After Ukrainian drone strikes, this plant, which supplies fuel and lubricants to Moscow and the Moscow region, announced a halt to its production cycle.

At the same time, it supplies fuel and lubricants not only to Moscow and the region but primarily to the Russian army. This means direct logistics problems for the occupation forces.

Now let's look at the results of the successful strike by Ukrainian Defense Forces' naval drones on the oil terminal in Novorossiysk, which handles the pumping of about 5% of global oil volumes. The consequences for Russia are simply catastrophic. Moreover, the Russian side stated that after the attack, the respective oil terminal cannot be restored. This is the most serious blow to Russia's ability to supply oil to end consumers.

It's also telling that the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces are in sync with U.S. efforts to reduce the capabilities of using the shadow fleet. Through U.S. diplomatic and economic pressure, Panama and the Bahamas have refused to provide their flags to the Russian shadow fleet. As a result, over 500 "rusty tubs," as Russia itself calls them, have dropped anchor, unable to transport oil and petroleum products. This is the most serious blow to the possibilities of replenishing the Russian treasury with petrodollars.

It's very telling that 2025 has become a disastrous year for the Russian Federation in the context of its external doctrine as a "gas station country." By decision of the State Duma, the export of gasoline and diesel fuel was suspended to stabilize the situation within the country. Russia was forced to take unpopular measures — increase imports of gasoline and diesel fuel, purchasing them from Tatarstan and Belarus.

Specially for Espreso

About the author: Dmytro Sniehyriov, military expert, co-chair of the public initiative Right Cause.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.