Ukraine's Kursk operation ongoing, U.S. military aid may last until 2028. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Ukraine’s Kursk operation still in progress

Despite Russian claims that they could have captured the city of Sudzha, Ukrainian military leadership and OSINT analysts assert that fighting continues on the outskirts of the settlement. This includes the northern and western parts of the city, which are located in the gray zone of the conflict. Overall, this area spans more than 140 square kilometers. This is much smaller than at the beginning of Ukraine's attacks—during the early stages of the Kursk operation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to take control of 1,200 square kilometers. The issue is not about the territory but the consequences of this Ukrainian operation. Currently, Ukrainian forces aim to prevent the Russians from advancing in the Kursk region. Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, mentioned that fighting continues in the suburbs of Sudzha and the surrounding areas. The city itself has been destroyed by Russian guided bombs and artillery.

Oleksandr Syrskyi also reported that since the beginning of the Kursk operation on August 6, 2024, the total Russian military losses in this direction have exceeded 55,000 personnel, with 22,000 being permanent. Additionally, around 2,000 units of various Russian military equipment have been destroyed. From a military assessment, it can be stated that the main objectives of this operation have been achieved. Overall, the Kursk operation is still ongoing. At present, both combat actions and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops are taking place. Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are withdrawing their units without any encirclements, contrary to the claims made by Russian war correspondents. This indicates that Ukrainian forces are retreating in a well-organized and precise manner.

Russian troops continue their attempts to advance towards the Ukrainian Armed Forces' logistical routes in the Kursk direction. Specifically, in the areas of Novenke, Zhuravka, and Basivka, located on the right flank of Ukraine’s defense. There, the Russians are trying to advance towards the logistical communication line using small infantry groups. Currently, combat actions are taking place on both the eastern and western flanks of the Ukrainian logistical routes. The situation remains quite dynamic. Overall, the intensity of combat in the Kursk region has decreased, while in other sectors, the intensity of combat has increased.

Russians deploy equipment in assaults in the Lyman sector

This week, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a series of successful counterattacks in the Pokrovsk sector. The Russians have started using armored vehicles for assault actions in certain areas, particularly in the Lyman sector. A few days ago, Russian troops attempted to advance in the Zolotarivka area using equipment. The Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed about 20 units of Russian military equipment and a significant number of personnel. Despite heavy losses, the Russians continue to try to capture as much Ukrainian territory as possible.

Putin demands guarantees during 30-day ceasefire

Yesterday, Russian leader Putin responded to the need to agree to a ceasefire, which was discussed between the U.S. and Ukraine following a meeting in Saudi Arabia. He stated that Russia wants certain guarantees during the 30-day ceasefire. Putin said that Ukraine should not conduct mobilization, should not prepare the conscripted personnel, and should not receive weapons during this period. All of Putin's statements are nothing more than attempts to buy time and reflect Russia's unwillingness to agree to any ceasefire. Such concerns have increased in Russia after the U.S. resumed military aid shipments to Ukraine. It was revealed on March 12 that American arms supplies to Ukraine have resumed, including the most scarce military items, such as ammunition, strike systems for various types of weapons, anti-tank guided missiles, ammunition for HIMARS, and spare parts for American equipment.

This weaponry is being supplied from packages approved during President Biden's administration. Of course, there are no new aid packages from Donald Trump's administration. However, if we analyze the volume of aid that can still be provided from the packages signed by Biden, we are talking about packages under the Presidential Drawdown Authority program. This means that the weapons are being taken from the U.S. Department of Defense’s stockpiles, with a remaining balance of around $3 billion. There are also military aid packages related to the production of weapons under new contracts. In total, contracts worth $15 billion were signed in 2024. These contracts have execution terms ranging from 12 to 24 months and even longer. In fact, these contracts are meant to ensure the supply of weapons to Ukraine until 2028. If Donald Trump does not halt these contracts, the most scarce types of weapons will be supplied in equal parts until 2028. These are quite good figures that take into account the needs on the front line, especially since, during this time, we will also receive aid from our European partners.

Swedish Saab, Ukrainian Radionix sign cooperation agreement

When we talk about cooperation with our European partners, there are increasing reports that Ukrainian defense companies, together with European ones, are forming alliances to implement new projects and weapons systems.

Yesterday, it became known that the Swedish company Saab and the Ukrainian company Radionix have signed a memorandum of intent for a strategic partnership in the field of military electronics. The memorandum, published on Saab’s website, contains rather vague interpretations. It is important to note that Saab is one of the world’s most powerful companies. It manufactures a wide range of weapons, including Gripen aircraft, long-range radar detection planes, as well as several types of missile systems. Some of these systems are already being used by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Saab is interested in having reliable partners on the Ukrainian side.

The partner in this case is the company Radionix. This company is known as a powerful industrial association that manufactures a range of components for high-tech weapons systems. Specifically, it produces guidance heads used in the Neptune cruise missiles. Radionix also manufactures optoelectronic guidance systems used for the modernization of Soviet-era aircraft. In my opinion, Radionix is one of the most advanced companies in creating guidance systems and various radar systems used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Of course, if the alliance between Radionix and Saab is strong, we will effectively be able to receive certain electronic component solutions from our Swedish partners. On the other hand, Radionix could become a reliable platform for Saab, which does not rule out the possibility of Gripen aircraft appearing in Ukraine.