Russia’s summer offensive: What it means for peace prospects by year-end

Contents

1. Progrss of the Russian military campaign

2. What are the Kremlin's goals

3. What do the experts say?

As international media note, under the smokescreen of "peace talks", the Russians continue to deploy more and more troops on the border with Ukraine, and the Kremlin's war machine is only gaining momentum, in particular in the Sumy region. Espresso will tell you more about the Russian summer offensive, what goals the Kremlin is pursuing and what to expect from it.

Progress the Russian military campaign

Since the beginning of this year, Russia has stepped up its offensive in Ukraine, seizing 1,282 square kilometers of territory in the first five months — twice as much as during the same period in 2024. According to DeepState, May saw the highest losses so far this year, mainly in the Pokrovsk direction.

However, as Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Colonel Pavlo Palisa noted, Russia captured only 0.5% of Ukrainian territory in all of 2024, and just 0.2% so far this year.

"But at the cost of 167 killed occupiers for every square kilometer. This does not look like a 'quick victory.' We are not losing the war," Palisa told U.S. senators.

This year, Russian forces are focusing their efforts on the Donetsk region, especially in the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka directions. Analysts say the goal is to straighten the front line by eliminating Ukrainian "pockets" of resistance. This would allow Russia to launch attacks on key cities like Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk. Fighting is also ongoing in the Zaporizhia and Sumy regions.

In northern Ukraine, Russian propaganda describes their actions as creating a "sanitary zone" — pushing Ukrainian forces as far away from the Russian border as possible.

Back in March 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia was preparing for a major new offensive, especially in the east, including the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. He said the offensive had originally been planned for August–September last year, but Ukraine's Kursk operation disrupted those plans. However, the situation changed this year. In February–March, Ukrainian troops almost fully withdrew from the Kursk region after Russian forces managed to cut off their supply routes.

Russia began preparing a bridgehead for an offensive in the Sumy region earlier this year, and the operation started in April. At that time, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Russia's spring-summer offensive had "actually begun."

By the end of April, Russia claimed control of four border villages in Sumy. In May, the offensive picked up speed, with Russian troops using small assault groups to advance up to 10 kilometers in some areas. According to DeepState, by early June, Russia controlled about 150 square kilometers in Sumy, including several settlements. The main pressure is around Yunakivka and Khotyn, where Russian forces are trying to hold their positions and continue pushing forward in small groups.

However, the advance has recently slowed due to Ukrainian counterattacks. According to the BBC, Russian forces have reached up to 11 kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory, with the front stretching about 40 kilometers wide. They approached a key Ukrainian defensive line but failed to break through. Military expert and former General Staff spokesperson Vladyslav Seleznov told Radio NV that Russian troops have been "held back by Ukrainian fortifications."

“They are unlikely to advance further,” Seleznov said, “because this is where the network of fortifications and defensive structures begins — built earlier by the military-civilian administration. Whether the enemy moves closer to the regional center will depend on how many resources they’re willing to spend.”

This situation in the Sumy region now partly mirrors what happened last year in the Kharkiv region. Then too, Russian forces broke through but failed to build on their gains, and the front eventually stabilized.

It’s also important to note that Russia has concentrated over 50,000 troops near the border with Sumy.

At the same time, Russian forces are seeing gains in the southern part of Donetsk region, where they are now only 2 kilometers away from Dnipropetrovsk region.

They will do everything to cross the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk region. They want it. So far, they have not succeeded," said President Zelenskyy.

What are the Kremlin's goals

Despite Russia's repeated claims that it wants a peaceful resolution to the war — largely aimed at appealing to President Trump — the Kremlin continues to insist that "the root cause of the conflict must be resolved." In doing so, Moscow signals that it still stands by its original goals that sparked the war. The recent talks about restarting negotiations in Istanbul haven't changed this position.

As President Zelenskyy explained, Russia's proposal is essentially an ultimatum. It seeks to legitimize its territorial gains, weaken Ukraine's military, and restore Russian political and cultural influence over Ukrainian society. On top of that, Russia wants all sanctions against it lifted immediately.

In reality, the Kremlin is doing everything it can to prolong the war. It is not willing to make any real concessions and is still aiming to revive a version of the Soviet empire shaped by Putin's vision.

That’s why Ukraine must keep resisting on all fronts — including through operations like “Spider Web.” This mission was not just about reducing the missile threat, but also about showing Washington that Ukraine still “holds the cards,” as Trump might say.

Right now, analysts say the Kremlin's main goal is to strengthen its position ahead of real negotiations — not the staged talks in Istanbul — by capturing as much territory as possible. This includes the four Ukrainian regions that Russia illegally declared as part of its territory. Putin also wants to create a so-called "buffer zone" in northern Ukraine, claiming it would reduce threats to Russian border areas.

However, these goals aren’t new. Russia has talked about them for years, but like the failed attempt to take “Kyiv in three days,” they haven’t been fully achieved. The main focus remains on key targets like Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kostiantynivka.

Meanwhile, offensives in Sumy and Zaporizhia are seen as diversionary — aimed at stretching Ukrainian forces. According to The Telegraph, neither Sumy nor Kharkiv are Russia’s main targets in this summer's campaign.

"A decisive breakthrough remains unlikely, although Putin appears confident that significant progress can be made on multiple fronts," the publication notes.

Colonel Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, recently stated that Russia's goals remain the same. By the end of 2026, Moscow aims to fully occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and establish a "buffer zone" along Ukraine's northern border. In 2026, Russia also plans to seize all territory east of the Dnipro River and cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea.

What experts say

Everyone knows that wanting something and actually getting it are two different things. But 72-year-old Vladimir Putin seems to confuse this. Since the full-scale war started, hostile propaganda has acted like victory is already certain, saying “a nuclear country cannot lose.” Their view is clear: if not today, then tomorrow they will win. This has gone on for nearly 3.5 years. They don’t care about resources or human lives — the Ukrainian Armed Forces have killed about a million Russian soldiers.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that even though Russia is stepping up fighting again, their plan to capture a large part of Ukraine this summer is unrealistic.

"It remains unclear on what basis the Russian military may be able to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast within the next three months or even advance the 50 to 80 kilometers from the current Russian frontline to the administrative boundaries of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have spent the last 15 months advancing between 30 and 50 kilometers from the outskirts of Avdiivka to their current positions northeast and southwest of Pokrovsk, a far slower rate of advance than the one necessary to seize all of Donetsk Oblast by September 1," ISW reminds.

The New York Times adds that, according to experts, Russia's military campaign in Ukraine "is on pace to be among the slowest offensive campaigns in modern warfare."

There is a lot of talk right now about a possible attack on Sumy. The closer Russian forces get, the more they can shell the city, which is a real threat to its residents. Because of this, civilians who can leave are being warned to do so. According to DeepState, the Russians have reached within 20 kilometers of Sumy, so drone strikes on the city are possible.

Serhiy Zgurets, director of Defense Express, says, “There are doubts about a big threat of capturing Sumy, but the enemy could use artillery and drones to destroy the city if they get close.”

He adds that Russia is pushing toward Sumy and has already taken seven nearby settlements. Their main target is Yunakivka, on the way to Sumy. But the difficult landscape, forests, and poor logistics make it hard for them to move forward.

On the other hand, as the BBC reports, Russia is using aircraft and infantry assault groups to create the “buffer zone” in Sumy region. They drop dozens of guided bombs every day, destroying border villages and Ukrainian army defenses. Russian drones, including fiber-optic FPV drones, are also constantly searching for Ukrainian supplies and soldiers. Because of this, it’s hard to say exactly where the Ukrainian forces will be able to stop the Russian attack.

The BBC says the Khotin-Khrapivshchyna-Yunakivka area is an important defense line in Sumy region. It has high ground with thick forests, rivers, and ravines, which helps the Ukrainian defenders. If Russian troops take control of this high ground, they can attack Sumy with drones and artillery.

Analysts say the whole Russian summer offensive doesn’t have a clear plan. It looks more like an attempt to please Putin, who refuses to change his original goals.

Military expert Kostiantyn Mashovets told Radio NV that these are small, separate actions in different places, without forming one big offensive. Maybe there’s a bigger goal near Kostiantynivka or Pokrovsk, but overall, the attacks don’t connect.

Viktor Yahun, Deputy Head of the SBU (2014–2015), Major General of the SBU Reserve, and military expert, emphasized on Espreso that although the Russian leadership fears the end of the war, the situation in the Russian Federation forces them to make a decision during June.

"This war cannot drag on indefinitely, and they really have a deadline. They must make some decisions this month. Everyone agrees that June — mid-2025 — is the critical point symbolizing the complete collapse of the Russian economy — not the military, but the civilian sector. If they remain in this state until the end of the year, there will be no return to their desired position. They themselves have acknowledged this: 'If we want to reach the level of countries that influence global affairs — at least to enter the top twenty — then we need to stop military operations by 2026, ideally by the end of 2025, and focus on our own internal problems rather than external ones.' So, their time is very limited," Yahun explained.

He added that the Russian authorities did not anticipate the war dragging on and are uncertain about what to do with the hundreds of thousands of front-line veterans. Rehabilitation programs are essentially a fiction. Similar to the “Afghans” of the 1990s, many of whom turned to crime, the current Russian soldiers — trained to kill without remorse — may become a threat to the regime. Upon their return, they will demand answers about the worsening situation in the country.

We must also remember that alongside the war on the front lines, there is a diplomatic battle underway that could be crucial in the final phase of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation. It remains unclear what President Donald Trump’s next move will be — his initial claim that he could end the war in 24 hours has gradually shifted into a stance resembling "let the children fight in the sandbox." Although he frequently mentions considering new powerful sanctions against Russia, every two weeks he postpones decisive action, saying we’ll see what happens in two more weeks. Naturally, this benefits Putin and supports his fixed idea of seizing all of Ukraine. For the Kremlin, it is vital to create conditions that will ultimately force the U.S. not only to withdraw from negotiations — which, in reality, has already happened — but also to stop supporting Ukraine altogether.

The military aid packages allocated by former President Biden will expire this summer — one reason for the recent trip of Andriy Yermak, Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, to Washington. Summer is therefore a critical period when all cards are on the table, and players must make their move, speaking the language of poker. In the near future, we will witness a decisive phase not only of the military conflict but also of a high-stakes geopolitical game. The Kremlin, cornered by economic and military exhaustion, is desperately trying to convince both itself and the U.S. of the inevitability of its “victory.” In contrast, Ukraine, despite fatigue and resource shortages, continues to defend its independence and conduct unique operations because it has no other choice. Right now, it seems Russia cannot win the war, and Ukraine cannot lose it. Genuine negotiations are therefore inevitable — but until they begin, the Russians will maintain their offensive.