Ukraine could see hostilities end by July, analysts say — with return to Russia’s orbit possible

Analysts at the JPMorgan Chase Geopolitics Center reported the information. 

According to them, Ukraine is likely to agree to a settlement of the war with Russia by the end of June 2025, though not necessarily a comprehensive peace. 

The analysts emphasize that, at the current pace of Russia’s offensive, it would take approximately 118 years to occupy all of Ukraine. Therefore, Putin is expected to seek an agreement that advances his strategic goal of establishing control over Kyiv.

"The durability of any settlement will depend on: (1) how satisfied President Putin is with Ukrainian and Western concessions (did he get enough of what he wanted?). Both sides need a deal they can defend politically. And (2) the strength of the security promises underwriting it (are they sufficient to deter further aggression and allow Ukraine to rebuild with confidence?). These are in direct tension; the weaker the security promises, the more concessions Ukraine will have to swallow—neutrality, demilitarization, disarmament, territory, etc.—or risk a return to fighting," the report says.

They also predicted four most likely scenarios for Ukraine.

Best case scenario — "South Korea" (15% probability)

Ukraine will not receive NATO membership and full restoration of its territory, but will be able to provide "in-country European tripwire force" backed by "American security promise" of assistance and intelligence. This would allow 80% of Ukraine's territory to develop in a stable, prosperous and democratic manner.

Still OK—  "Israel" (20% probability)

Strong and sustained military and economic support without a significant presence of foreign troops will allow Ukraine to become a "fortress", modernize its army and create its own deterrence. However, "war would always be on its doorstep."

Not great — "Georgia" (50% probability)

In the absence of foreign troops and strong military support, Ukraine will face "ongoing instability," slowed development, reduced Western support and the actual disruption of Western integration, with "gradual drift back into Russia’s orbit."

Worst case scenario — "Belarus" (15% probability)

If the U.S. withdraws its support for Ukraine and Europe fails to replace it, Russia will demand Ukraine's complete surrender, turning it into its vassal state. In this scenario, "Russia will have effectively won the war, divided the West, and irrevocably upended the post-World War II world order."

• On May 18, Russian leader Vladimir Putin outlined the goals of the so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine, which, alongside territorial claims, also include issues related to the status of the Russian language.
• On May 22, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and now Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, stated that Ukraine should not expect to return to its 1991 or even 2022 borders, given Russia’s available resources.