Ukraine at critical juncture: time to shift negotiation paradigm

But this is a path to nowhere, especially against the backdrop of Lavrov's statements about the need to change all of Ukraine's leadership.

If we don't propose a change in the modality of negotiations — it will be proposed instead of us.

Attempts at diagnosis

1. In his election program, Trump puts practically everything on external factors, where behind Greenland actually stands Trump's and his inner circle's long-standing idée fixe — the collapse of the EU. I've been saying the same thing for many years: the main war in the world is not Ukraine. It's who and how will profit from Europe. And this is the key logic of current events.

2. Trump, emboldened by Venezuela and under threat of losing the midterm elections, decided to accelerate the processes. The EU has no common position and for now appears confused.

"3. Trump is postponing the Ukrainian question. And the question, it seems, is not only about Greenland. He is comfortable with the continuation of the war as a factor of weakening the Russian economy."

4. I already wrote about the U.S. logic (it seems the main ideologist here is Treasury Secretary Bessent). And this logic consists of confrontation with China's blackmail regarding rare earths. As a counterbalance to rare earths, the U.S. seeks to gain control over pricing of global oil, maximize transactions in dollars, and gain control over the world's main logistical points. Plus, the split of the EU and maximization of U.S. influence in this market.

5. For now we have two unknowns: the EU's reaction (the first litmus test will appear in Davos, and it will come down to whether they manage to produce at least the appearance of a common position on Greenland). The second unknown is China's reaction, which is still silent. Although, it's possible that China is simply waiting for Trump to step in a puddle. After all, he's simultaneously trying to wage several wars without any bureaucratic support. 

Our war

"Unfortunately, hopes for a blitzkrieg have evaporated. We are entering, at minimum, several months without real negotiations. On the positive side: money from the EU for the coming months is 100% guaranteed, however events in the EU develop. And the U.S. will sell weapons."

We can assume that the Russians managed to sell Trump the idea of a quick military end to the war for a second time. A year ago they sold the summer offensive, which was supposed to change everything fundamentally. Now they sold winter (one of the basic tasks now is to do everything possible so that Putin doesn't manage to sell the next summer). 

We find ourselves in a certain trap: Washington wants the continuation of the war to weaken Russia, at the same time Washington would like to gain access to the resources of the Russian Arctic and also prevent China's entry into these projects. Russia, meanwhile, simply wants to drag out the war without giving the U.S. access to anything. We're simply not in this scheme. 

Possible recommendations (aside from military ones)

1. Our main task is to devise and convey to the Americans the concept of "Why the continuation of the war is not beneficial to them." Until now our concept came down to territories, the Russians talked about territories and returning to the global agenda. And Washington was looking for benefits. This model has reached a dead end, which for now suits both the Kremlin and the White House. Without changing this paradigm we won't be able to find our game. 

For now, as far as I understand, we've never even tried to pose the question this way. But it's precisely on creating such a concept that it depends when we'll approach real negotiations.

2. We, unfortunately, won't be able to "crawl away" from the U.S., as many are now saying. We're dependent on their supply of air defense on one hand, and we don't have a strong partner who could become a mediator in negotiations with the Russian Federation. We consciously rejected and reject China, although this is strategic foolishness.

3. Our only trump card now is public opinion in the U.S. and the political establishment's attitude toward the war in Ukraine. We have no other option except to work so that in a few months this factor becomes decisive for Trump (once we were lucky — after Anchorage Trump was forced to turn 180 degrees). Now this "miracle" needs to be created. But here a separate headquarters with a separate leader must be created to do this. Ideally, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should take this upon itself. True, there are great doubts that anyone will entrust them with this.

4. However the story with Greenland ends, we have the main trump card — the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The European game consisted and still consists in the fact that for the coming years the only army that can defend Europe is the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Even if tomorrow the U.S. seizes Greenland, nothing changes regarding the Russia question. Therefore here our negotiating position with the EU can hardly change fundamentally.

5. Inside the country, communication must fundamentally change, because right now we have signs of panic and deep depression of a large part of society. 

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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