What to expect from Trump's talks with Putin?

Trump has announced a meeting with Putin. He said he would talk about the Ukrainian territories and Zaporizhzhia NPP.

The U.S. has even informed Europe of its withdrawal from the international group investigating Russia’s actions in the war against Ukraine, signaling to the Kremlin its commitment to ending the war. Now, Trump is waiting for Putin to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.

Ukraine has already agreed to the ceasefire and even expressed readiness to ease sanctions against Russia as part of a peace deal. This was confirmed by Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the president’s envoy on sanctions policy, in an interview with Politico. Another bargaining chip for Trump.

Putin, on one hand, wants to continue the war, seeing progress on the front lines, Ukraine’s failed mobilization, and hoping that Western fatigue and aid cuts will lead to Ukraine’s defeat. 

On the other hand, he fears that rejecting the ceasefire would not only anger Trump but also push him to abandon rapprochement with Russia, impose stricter sanctions, increase arms supplies to Ukraine, and crack down on Russia’s shadow fleet. All of this would further damage Russia’s already struggling economy. Additionally, countries in Asia, Africa, and the Global South may react negatively to Russia's refusal, though this would be a minor concern compared to Trump’s potential retaliation.

Thus, Putin faces a difficult choice. I believe his fears will prevail, and he will agree to the ceasefire, intending to break it later, as has always been the case. During Ukraine's Anti-Terrorist Operation in Donbas, similar ceasefires were agreed upon about 60 times, yet Russia violated every single one. 

However, there is still a chance that Putin’s desire to keep fighting will be outweighed by rational calculations, leading him to accept Trump’s terms. We will soon find out.

Source

About the author: Boryslav Bereza, public figure, former Member of Parliament of Ukraine.

The editorial team does not necessarily share the views expressed by blog authors.