Trump is trapped in his own promises

The declaration of a moratorium on energy strikes and the war at sea gave Trump a chance to continue his "peace in Ukraine" track. Had there been no results in Saudi Arabia this time, the overly optimistic statements from White House officials and Trump himself would have seemed ridiculous.

Trump fell into the trap of his own promises, having spent years claiming that peace could be achieved in a day, only to find out that the situation is much more complex. However, he continues to make these promises, even saying that Putin "is only pretending" to drag out negotiations. Paradoxically, compared to his other initiatives, achieving even a 30-day ceasefire seems more realistic than buying Greenland, annexing Canada, or triggering an economic boom in the U.S. through tariff hikes.

Putin understands Trump's difficult situation and is deliberately prolonging the negotiation process by presenting either unrealistic or endless additional conditions after agreements have been announced. For example, this time, he introduced a long list of sanctions to be lifted as preconditions for a ceasefire at sea, which had already been announced in the U.S. Ideally, Putin would prefer the Ukrainians to drag out the negotiations.

I am convinced that Washington and Moscow are discussing a much broader range of issues than officially announced. At the very least, they are discussing various U.S. investments in Russia's economy, particularly in energy and Arctic development projects. Occasionally, information about these unofficial negotiations leaks to the media.

I think the intense phase of negotiations will last a few more months, after which Trump will either quietly distance himself from the Russian-Ukrainian war topic or significantly change his approach. The big question is what exactly Trump will change.

Another big question is how the time will be used if, in a few months, a fragile pause in the war does indeed occur. However, from today's perspective, this still seems like a very distant prospect.

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About the author. Serhiy Taran, political scientist

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