Trump can't afford to surrender Ukraine to Putin

No one seriously expected the war to be stopped at this meeting, as its purpose was completely different and did not involve the forced "surrender" of Ukraine by the Americans.

1. There are many reasons why Donald Trump has not yet withdrawn from the peace process he initiated. One of them is public opinion in the U.S., which continues to remain pro-Ukrainian.

"A November poll showed that 62% of Trump's core voters (so-called MAGA Republicans) support Ukraine. Moreover, 73% of his voters consider Ukraine an ally, 72% perceive Russia as an enemy of the U.S., and 65% are convinced that America should help Ukraine restore its sovereignty or at least provide strong security guarantees if the war ends along the front line."

I emphasize once again: this is about Donald Trump's voters. Among other voters — Democrats and "traditional" Republicans — the level of support for Ukraine is even higher.

That is why Donald Trump has no option of "surrendering" Ukraine to Putin. Such a step would inevitably lead to a collapse in Republican ratings, which, on the eve of next year's congressional elections, would have catastrophic consequences for him and his party.

2. Given the mood of the voters, it is extremely important for Trump to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. Moreover, today he no longer has the opportunity to end it at any cost, including at the cost of surrendering Ukraine to Putin. What kind of "surrender" can there be if 71% of his voters (the same MAGA Republicans) demand the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine?

Thus, if Trump wants to retain his voters, a peaceful settlement must take place only on terms that Ukraine itself publicly recognizes as acceptable. In fact, this is exactly what is currently being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine — a public statement by Zelenskyy that he agrees to the terms that Trump was able to secure for Ukraine.

3. It is currently unknown exactly what Zelenskyy and Trump discussed in Florida. It is only known that Ukraine did not make statements about accepting any peace terms, and it is not a fact that this was even expected by the meeting participants.

In the absence of real results in a peaceful settlement, it is important for the U.S. administration to show its voters that they continue to engage in negotiations, and that other participants positively assess the role of the U.S. in this process. So yesterday in Florida, we saw a kind of "plan B": Zelenskyy repeatedly stated that "everything is 95% agreed," and further thanked Trump, Witkoff, and other participants in the process personally.

Obviously, similar statements are expected from Putin. But since the Americans' ability to pressure him is limited, they use the cheapest tool for themselves — verbal statements about how Putin allegedly really wants to end the war. Political language is cheap language, and the Americans are demonstrating a true master class in this.

4. In all other respects, everything looks like a normal diplomatic process. It can last for years, but under pressure, it can sometimes accelerate. The U.S. has taken the position of a so-called active mediator — a negotiator who tries to alternately pressure each side to accelerate the convergence of positions. According to negotiation theory, this pressure can be both negative and stimulating. Sanctions against Lukoil or consent to security guarantees for Ukraine — all from the same logic.

Such "swings" will continue for quite a long time — either until the end of the war, or until the moment when American sociology allows the U.S. administration to abandon this process and finally withdraw from it.

Situationally, America has sided with Ukraine, and there is currently no force that could change this. Therefore, in the near future, the U.S. will continue to represent Ukraine's interests in negotiations with Russia, while simultaneously supplying us with weapons, intelligence, and other critically important support.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Ukrainian lawmaker.

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