Systematic destruction of Russian arsenals enters second stage. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Attack on Russian drone manufacturing plant

Yesterday, Ukrainian bomber drones attacked a factory producing Shahed or Geran-2 drones, located in the Yelabuga Special Economic Zone. These drones, built on the basis of light civilian aircraft, are capable of carrying aerial bombs weighing around 250 kg. According to preliminary information, several of Ukrainian drones dropped bombs on the Russian facility.

Yelabuga is located more than 1,200 km from Ukraine's state border. Russian sources reported that several drones were shot down over the city by air defense. However, in the video we reviewed, the Pantsir-S1 system can be seen firing, but it actually fails to hit the drones - its missiles detonate in the air. Due to the drone threat, airports in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk temporarily suspended operations.

Let me remind you that this special economic zone in Tatarstan has been attacked by Ukrainian drones before. In April 2024, there were strikes on this facility, followed by another attack in December 2024. We’re now seeing these strikes becoming more systematic and effective, and I hope we’ll soon see the results of this latest strike.

It’s worth noting that this facility produces Shahed drones, with a reported output of 6,000 units last year. This year, the Russian production rates are even higher, but I believe these plans will be disrupted by the systematic and effective work of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces.

Also, two days ago, a major Russian ammunition storage base was blown up - the 51st arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of Russia’s Ministry of Defense.

Today, images from a NASA service that monitors temperature changes across different areas show a significant increase in the fire area at the arsenal site. While there are no optical images yet, the thermal data indicates that the detonation was quite effective, suggesting this is one of those arsenals Russia may have to forget about.

Overall, it's worth noting that there were 11 such arsenals and logistical bases deep within Russian territory - within the 800 km range of Ukrainian long-range drones. Three of these storage sites were destroyed last year - Toropets and other depots.

The destruction of these three sites even led to a nearly twofold decrease in the intensity of Russian artillery use, as stated by Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi. When they were firing 40,000 shells per day, after these depots were blown up, their artillery usage dropped to 28,000.

I hope that the strike on yet another arsenal will similarly slow down Russia’s use of both artillery and various guided missiles, since guided and ballistic missiles were also stored there. In any case, this process of systematically destroying arsenals has entered its second stage following last year, and I believe this effort, just like the strikes on Yelabuga, will continue.

Peace talks in London

At the same time, we were expecting negotiations in London, where representatives from the diplomatic services of several countries - including the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, and Ukraine - were scheduled to meet to discuss a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. The talks are currently ongoing, though not at the level of heads of state. However, all intended Ukrainian representatives attended, including Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, the Foreign Minister, and the Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak.

Amid these talks, everyone read the foreign media publication that revealed details of a potential U.S. peace plan. According to the report, the final peace proposal from the United States includes recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and unofficial recognition of Russian control over nearly all territories occupied since the 2022 invasion.

In reality, recognition of Crimea is an absolutely unacceptable step for Ukrainian citizens, military, and political leadership. There were several statements on this matter in recent days. However, it is clear that the United States will likely continue to pressure Ukraine and European partners to push through these initiatives - initiatives that, in fact, do not align with the principles of international law.

And in fact, in the case of such decisions, the entire framework of justice, the framework of security on which society exists, which should be ensured by the legislative field, and not by the factor of the power of a country, is destroyed. 

Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies and co-founder of the Consortium for Defense Informatio (which unites analytical organizations), shared his assessment of the potential outcomes of these negotiations.

And what, in his opinion, will happen, what will lead to the United States withdrawing from the negotiation process, which would, in effect, create a new reality in which Ukraine must build its own security framework.

“I’ll probably start with the United States. Something tells me that their withdrawal [from the negotiation process] is very unlikely. Because the China factor is already operating globally, and not in favor of the United States. First of all, there’s a whole range of actions that could be troubling for the U.S.

Most notably, there’s a sharp increase in assistance to Russia. And no matter how much Trump may now be playing in favor of Russia or the Kremlin, there are still certain risks for him. The United States itself has informed allies that China is now sharing strategic intelligence with Russia. Not to mention that Chinese military personnel are, likely with approval from China’s highest political leadership, involved in the war and conducting research into how the war is being fought. We’re also aware of the recent case where Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Chinese ambassador to express concerns and seek explanations: ‘Why are Chinese technologies being used on Russian territory, and why is China involved in weapons development?’ Then there’s the increase in deliveries of machinery, microchips, and so much more. Even firearms, let’s say — perhaps artillery and automatic weapons are arriving via re-export, but that’s not the point. The Chinese authorities are closely watching everything, and I believe that if they truly wanted to prevent re-export, they would have made sure it didn’t happen,” he said.

Valentyn Badrak believes the situation poses certain risks for the United States.

“I haven’t yet mentioned that this has sharply accelerated China’s ties, and reciprocal ties, with the European Union. In June, serious negotiations on broad cooperation are expected to take place, with EU countries having already agreed to them. If China succeeds - and let me remind you that from the end of 2023 and throughout 2024, the EU has been engaged in a very tough trade war with China - and if the situation now shifts, the United States could suddenly find itself somewhat isolated, which would not be in its favor. And of course, if we return to the talks between Russia and Ukraine, or so-called talks between them, since there are now calls for direct negotiations, I don’t think that will happen anytime soon. Now Trump is already reaping the consequences of having legitimized a war criminal and international outlaw, Putin, and effectively separated him [from accountability],” the military expert said.

In his opinion, the fact that the U.S. opposed recognizing Russian aggression in Ukraine and dissolved the commission investigating Russia’s crimes against Ukrainians during the war is a sign of a dangerously close alignment between the Trump administration and Russia.

“And I believe this situation does not benefit Trump at all. In my view, this political pendulum may swing until the NATO summit. A major signal in all of this is that Trump suddenly refused to attend the G20 meeting. This indicates he realizes that he, excuse the expression, has seriously messed things up and could face a wave of intense criticism if he were to attend the meeting in South Africa. So it's easier for him to say that ‘farmers are being killed there,’ as part of his usual narrative, and skip it. But I want to emphasize again - the situation around the United States is steadily deteriorating. Not to mention that China has stopped supplying rare earth metals for the U.S. defense industry. All of this points to a very grim scenario ahead,” noted Valentyn Badrak.

We’re talking not only about China, but also about Ukraine's response to the proposed U.S. peace plan that is actively being discussed in the media. This plan suggests that the United States might theoretically recognize Crimea as Russian, while not de jure recognizing Russian control over the other occupied regions of Ukraine. Yesterday, Yuliia Svyrydenko made a statement emphasizing that Ukraine will never recognize the occupation of Crimea.

If Ukraine is not being invited to join NATO, it still needs security guarantees. Valentyn Badrak spoke about where the country currently stands regarding such guarantees, and whether security guarantees are even possible.

"I find the position expressed by Yuliia Svyrydenko strange, where she said in a negating manner that we will never recognize the occupation. How can we not recognize it if Crimea is occupied? We don’t recognize Crimea as Russian territory, that’s true, but it’s a completely different situation, and it’s a different story altogether. What will happen next? First, what Trump stated, that he hopes something strange will happen this week. I think nothing will happen, and it’s unlikely anything very serious will take place anytime soon. All statements about guarantees, I think, for Ukraine, there is a special logic in recalling the so-called security agreements signed with several Western countries. 

A significant part of these agreements includes joint developments and joint productions. And, in fact, these agreements may be a pathway to guarantees. Because the only guarantee today is absolutely not NATO, in my opinion, which is very weak and barely holds together, but has the ability to provide us with weapons and resources. The most important thing is that European countries, in particular, Macron, did not recognize the disregard for Ukraine's territorial integrity. And this was stated immediately after Trump's remarks about the peace plan. I believe that European countries, first and foremost, will not recognize anything that moves in the direction of Russia controlling the post-Soviet space," said Valentin Badrak.

The military expert believes that European countries will not recognize this and hopes they will show resilience, as now Ukraine is in the same boat with them.

"They (European countries) are also now under the threat of attack by Russia. And the security agreements, the direct arrival of European businesses, and the activation of work on the production of various weapons - I'm very hopeful for Ukraine's entry into missile weapon clubs and other such areas. All of this will demonstrate the resilience of all of Europe, where Ukraine is already integrated into defense and the defense-industrial space. Therefore, the issue of negotiations will, so to speak, proceed along parallel paths. And nothing like recognizing Russian control or recognizing Crimea as Russian, or anything of the sort, I believe, will happen. And Zelenskyy will not agree to this, not only because he himself will not agree to it, but because he understands that the mood of many Ukrainians is such that they will not allow this risky step. And even more so, how would one explain the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who have died in this war? Therefore, the situation will progress tense and slowly, and Ukraine has already become a subject of international politics, which even Trump cannot ignore. This is a very important point in this whole story," he believes.

Valentyn Badrak also talked about the areas of cooperation with Europe in the defense sector and which projects could be most relevant for the Security and Defense Forces.

"First, the projects where Ukraine demonstrates itself as stronger than European countries. These are unmanned systems and electronic warfare means. I remind you of examples, such as the Ukrainian private alliance signing an agreement with the German Deal Defense, which protects systems like IRIS-T and RCH with electronic warfare means. RCH is the first remotely controlled howitzer produced by a German company for Ukraine. These are very important moments. The second area, without a doubt, could relate to space. This involves creating a satellite constellation together with Europeans and joint use of various commercial projects. This is something that Putin currently lacks, because the commercial investment route is closed to Russia today. Furthermore, what I mentioned earlier is the entry into missile consortia and missile clubs. This is a bilateral process. Ukraine demonstrates very interesting things, namely: extremely cheap, compact cruise missiles. These are also called, so to speak, drone-missiles, but one could argue about that - let's call them devices that fly at speeds of 600-800 kilometers per hour and carry a quite serious warhead. Of course, not as heavy as a true cruise missile, not 400 kilograms, but for example 100–150 kilograms. But the key is that they are very cheap and can be produced in extremely large quantities," he said.

The military expert believes that scaling up the production of these systems could lead to many results aimed at destroying the industrial and defense potential of Russia.

Moreover, in his opinion, Ukraine needs to join the major missile programs.

"In particular, I would very much like Ukraine to join the ballistic program, in which it already has its own developments. But we know that since November, France has been working on its own ballistic missile, which is extremely important. And the implementation of the plans that have already begun - this is the formation of layered missile defense, where Europeans are already participating de facto. I mean the Ukrainian-Italian project with the companies MBDA Italy Leonardo, where we can jointly create the CAM and AR anti-aircraft missiles with a range of 45 kilometers. A very powerful system, unfortunately, it is not yet adapted to intercept ballistic missiles, but I think this will be the case in the future. Finally, the joint work on ballistic missiles. It would be very important not only to receive the SAMP/T – the French-Italian system – but also to participate in localizing its production. I would think that both France and Italy could show goodwill here, because there are already developments regarding the Aster 30 Block 1 missile. But of course, we know that since 2023, and especially through 2024, France and Italy have made significant progress in developing the SAMP/T NG system. This is the latest system that will intercept hypersonic missiles, but it will only be available in 2026," said military expert and director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, Valentyn Badrak.