Saudi talks between US and Russia fail to yield results

The latest round of talks between the US, Ukraine, and Russia raised numerous questions regarding the relevance of the topics that were supposed to be discussed. Specifically, the US and Russia in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, were expected to discuss a ceasefire in the Black Sea, grain and fuel trade, the deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine, and territorial issues. But the question arises: how relevant are these issues to Ukraine?

Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko has analyzed the latest round of talks for the Azerbaijani information and analytical portal Minval Politika. Espreso publishes the translation of Kovalenko's article.

For example, Ukraine fully controls the situation in the Black Sea. Since 2022, the Russian Black Sea fleet has suffered losses that now qualify it as a flotilla, with its command forced to relocate its main base from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. Ukraine regularly conducts operations targeting Russian military ships and aircraft, using marine drones with integrated air defense systems. The grain corridor for Russian ships is completely out of reach. Just a week ago, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence conducted an effective operation where marine drones, carrying airborne strike drones, approached the coast of the temporarily occupied Crimea, resulting in the damage and destruction of five Russian surface-to-air missile systems, 14 radars, one transport tug, and one Mi-8 helicopter.

Thus, the question arises: in whose interest is a “ceasefire” in the Black Sea if Ukraine fully controls this area and creates a threat to the Russian fleet, but not vice versa?

The round of talks between Ukraine and the US on March 23 primarily focused on the return of children forcibly taken by Russia to Russia. For Ukraine, the issue of returning its citizens, especially children and prisoners taken under various pretenses, is extremely important. But can the US assist in this process?

Doubts arise from the fact that in the previous round of talks, the so-called phone call, Donald Trump mentioned that an agreement had been reached with Vladimir Putin regarding a prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia in the format of 175 for 175. However, the fact is that talks about the prisoner exchange were held in advance, and the current exchange was discussed and agreed upon by contact groups long before the phone call between the US and Russian presidents.

At the same time, there was no agreement on the issue that is particularly important to Ukraine—the exchange of all for all. This did not happen. Instead, the Russian side played the game with a topic that had almost already been agreed upon, and the US supported it.

Thus, the practical benefit of such talks for Ukraine is absolutely nonexistent, except for the process itself.

A vivid example was that after the phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and the supposed agreement not to strike energy infrastructure, these strikes continued. 

Similarly, during the meetings in Saudi Arabia, the intensity of hostilities did not decrease, not only in the combat zone but also the level of terror against the Ukrainian civilian population remained unchanged. Specifically, on March 24 at 14:00, a missile strike hit the center of Sumy, resulting in 101 people being injured.

Therefore, the initial conditions already suggested that the outcome of the meeting would be, to put it mildly, without outstanding achievements and any quick solutions or points of convergence, which Donald Trump is pushing for, but which are simply impossible under the current conditions.

Saudi Arabia meeting results

The meeting between the American and Russian delegations in Riyadh lasted over 12 hours, and after its conclusion, the joint statement on the results was postponed until the next day, March 25. On one hand, this could be explained by the fact that after such lengthy negotiations, everyone wanted to rest and gather their thoughts. On the other hand, this could indicate that the parties reached an agreement on such insignificant points that more time was needed to present the poor performance as something extraordinary.

Closer to noon, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the results of the US-Russia talks would not be published because they “were of a technical nature.” This also indicated that the lengthy negotiations between the US and Russian delegations did not lead to any significant outcome.

The only more talkative was Russian senator Karasin, who was part of the Russian delegation, who noted that the dialogue was useful but would continue with the participation of the UN—an organization that is considered utterly ineffective, further underscoring the low effectiveness of the meeting.

Moreover, after more than 12 hours of conversation, the American and Russian delegations did not agree on either the issue of a trilateral meeting between the representatives of the US, Ukraine, and Russia or the possibility of another phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin after the next round of negotiations.

All of this further emphasizes that no points of convergence were found, as was expected. 

Moreover, it seems that the situation after the meeting with the Russian delegation is only getting deeper into a deadlock, and solving it is certainly not a short-term prospect. 

Especially considering that Russia has not stopped making ultimatums, which Russian diplomats should have realized back in 2022—that they will never achieve results in talks with Ukraine.