Russia’s delayed, convulsive barrage on Ukraine — what’s behind it

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko discussed the issue, Obozrevatel reports. 

In the early hours of August 28, Russia launched a combined attack on Ukraine involving a total of 629 weapons. The barrage included 598 Shahed-136 'kamikaze' drones, of which Ukrainian air defense reportedly shot down 563. The assault also featured: 

• 20 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 

• 9 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 

• 2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, with the majority being intercepted, according to Ukrainian officials. 

The attack, which resulted in at least 19 civilian deaths, including four children, and dozens of injuries, was reportedly planned for Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24 but was postponed due to the presence of foreign dignitaries in Kyiv.

As Russia targeted Ukrainian cities, Ukraine executed its own strategic operations deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian drones successfully struck two of Russia's largest oil refineries, Novokuibyshevsk and Afipsky, which together process over 13 million tons of oil annually, further intensifying the fuel crisis within Russia.

In a significant naval development, Ukraine's military intelligence released a video showing a naval drone hitting a Russian "Buyan-M" class missile corvette in the Sea of Azov. This vessel is a carrier for Kalibr cruise missiles. Notably, Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which had positioned its Kalibr carriers for a strike, did not launch the missiles. It is speculated that the fleet command held its fire to avoid being targeted by the Ukrainian drones that were transiting the Black Sea toward the Russian refineries. This incident highlights the growing challenges for Russia's naval forces, which are now vulnerable to both sea and air drones, complicating their ability to carry out missile strikes on Ukraine.As Russia targeted Ukrainian cities, Ukraine executed its own strategic operations deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian drones successfully struck two of Russia's largest oil refineries, Novokuibyshevsk and Afipsky, which together process over 13 million tons of oil annually, further intensifying the fuel crisis within Russia.

In a significant naval development, Ukraine's military intelligence released a video showing a naval drone hitting a Russian Buyan-M class missile corvette in the Sea of Azov. This vessel is a carrier for Kalibr cruise missiles. 

Notably, Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which had positioned its Kalibr carriers for a strike, did not launch the missiles. It is speculated that the fleet command held its fire to avoid being targeted by the Ukrainian drones that were transiting the Black Sea toward the Russian refineries. This incident highlights the growing challenges for Russia's naval forces, which are now vulnerable to both sea and air drones, complicating their ability to carry out missile strikes on Ukraine.

In addition, attention was drawn to the limited number of Kh-101 missiles launched from Tu-95MS bombers, which also points to the impact of Operation Spiderweb on Russia’s strategic aviation.

"There will no longer be strikes with 70 or 90 Kh-101 missiles, nor will Russia ever again have 20 or more Tu-95MS in the sky at the same time. Moscow simply no longer has that many operational Tu-95MS bombers, and those that remain are used in a circular cycle to exhaustion. That is why today’s act of terror can be described as convulsive," Kovalenko wrote.

Beyond terror: latest attack reveals cracks and fears in Moscow’s system

As expected, Russia prepared a large-scale terror strike for Ukraine’s Independence Day but delayed it until all high-level foreign delegations had left Kyiv. This underscores both Moscow’s intent to keep terrorizing civilians and its deep fear of foreign representatives.

Once again, Russia tried to project “strength” and issue ultimatums — targeting civilians as a challenge to U.S. President Donald Trump. Ukraine responded the same night with strikes on the Novokuibyshevsk and Afipsky oil refineries, which together process over 13 million tons of crude annually, or nearly 5% of Russia’s output. Russian air defenses again failed to prevent the raid.

The combined strike format revealed not only Moscow’s shift toward systematic use of mixed weapons but also severe problems with missile carriers. Russia’s strategic aviation now has limited capacity for terror, while its naval vessels face high risks at sea.

This latest bloody act of terror exposed not just Russia’s familiar predatory face, but also a growing list of systemic problems and fears confronting Putin’s regime in the fourth year of full-scale war.