Russians employ “tactic of a thousand cuts” following defeats at Donetsk front

After more than three years of full-scale war against Ukraine, the Kremlin has still failed to achieve the stated goals of the so-called “special military operation,” including control over Donetsk region.

However, it is not useful to divide the Russian offensive by seasons. The occupying army continues to pressure Ukrainian Defense Forces positions. The difference is that in August, Russian advances into Ukrainian territory were half as much as in previous months, while losses are comparable to their peak losses in November 2024.

In November 2024, Russian advances reached nearly 750 kilometers into Ukrainian territory. Now, advances are no more than 300 kilometers, with losses reaching 35,000 in a single month.

These are tremendous successes for Ukraine’s Defense Forces. Currently, nearly 33 percent of Donetsk region is under Ukrainian control.

The Russians have encountered Ukraine’s layered defense in the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area. This sets the stage for further fighting to shift to other directions — essentially, if they cannot seize much, they may attempt smaller gains.

This explains the Russian occupiers’ intention to expand the theater of operations, primarily in Dnipropetrovsk region.

Russian troops are interested in this area because its flat terrain offers operational maneuver space. Success there would give them advantages both at the negotiating table and in the informational and psychological framing of the so-called “special military operation.”

Dnipropetrovsk region – the Novopavlivka direction, where the administrative borders of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk regions converge.

According to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, in this direction, the Russians are attempting to advance into Ukrainian territory using the “tactic of a thousand cuts.” “Their only goal is to declare their presence, to plant their flag on some building in a settlement. The situation is dynamic. The territories are large, troop densities are insufficient on both sides. They (Russians) have more forces there. But to conduct any decisive offensive, they lack the strength and means,” Syrskyi said in a briefing with journalists.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) reports that Russian propaganda is actively using a new disinformation tactic — staged videos of “capturing” settlements.

According to HUR, small groups of occupiers with Russian flags attempt to sneak into individual villages and film short clips to create the illusion of successes on the front.

These staged videos, HUR notes, are used by Russian occupiers for “victory” reports to the Kremlin leadership and for media dissemination to exert psychological pressure on Ukrainian society.

In this context, an escalation of actions on the Zaporizhzhia direction is also not ruled out. The 76th Airborne Division has already been redeployed there from the Kursk direction.

This direction will be active at least as an attempt by the Russians to reach the fire range of Zaporizhzhia, up to 20 kilometers. However, they will not take the city, it is impossible. They lack the reserves, and the Russians fully understand this, which is why they are likely to use a “scorched earth” tactic.

According to military expert and retired Ukrainian colonel Zhdanov, if Russian forces advance along the Pokrovsk direction and reach the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway, they could move straight toward Zaporizhzhia. This would put the Huliaipole and Orikhiv directions at risk — they could be encircled. That is why Russia is currently carrying out peripheral attacks on positions in the Huliaipole and Orikhiv directions. These attacks are not always intense, but their goal is to force Ukrainian forces to hold troops there, preventing reinforcements from being sent to Novopavlivka.

“There are major issues with the engineering of positions — there are simply too few defensive lines, or they were not built in time. Ukrainian troops cannot properly fortify: infantry cannot settle into trenches as they are constantly pushed back. This causes the front to be ‘compressed’ and gradually pushed forward,” he noted.

Meanwhile, in the Sumy direction, the situation has stabilized, and Russia’s plan to create a so-called “buffer zone” has failed. A renewed offensive there is unlikely.

The Kupiansk direction, however, will be challenging, primarily because Russian troops are determined to capture the Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction.

The Russians urgently need logistics, and controlling this station would allow them to strengthen their striking forces and attempt a breakthrough toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Fighting is currently ongoing on the northern and northwestern outskirts of the city, as well as in the villages of Tyshchenkivka, Kindrashivka, and Mala Shapkivka.

According to military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets from the Information Resistance group, the Russians, operating in small infantry groups, have created a large infiltration area in the northwest of Kupiansk.

“These forces, from the 6th Combined Arms Army, completed their immediate objective — they reached the R-79 road with a broad front and created conditions to further block Kupiansk from the west, toward the road to Chuhuiv. At present, the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot stop this due to a shortage of combat-ready infantry. Russian forces simply outnumber them and can continue to build up forces in this direction,” Mashovets explained.

In summary, the Dnipropetrovsk, Kupiansk, and Sumy directions this fall will primarily serve a diversionary purpose.

Exclusively for Espreso

About the author. Dmytro Sniehyrov, military expert, co-chair of the NGO Prava Sprava.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.