Putin believes Russia can keep fighting through this year

That's why, on February 28, after the conflict between Zelenskyy and Trump in the Oval Office, they were popping champagne.  

But Europe (Britain, France) intervened. It’s worth noting that both Trump and Putin share a similar view of European leaders—as people incapable not only of heroic deeds but even of basic self-preservation.  

However, the Europeans played their part and convinced Zelenskyy that he needed to make another attempt at reconciliation with Trump. Despite his reluctance, Zelenskyy had little choice.  

This led to the apology, Saudi Arabia, and negotiations that should have taken place back on February 28.  

"The Americans are clearly in a hurry. They are racing against the 100-day mark, which is why the next steps have been scheduled: by March 15—a Trump-Putin meeting, and by April 1—a trilateral agreement on ceasing hostilities."

The plan was to pave the way for the next phase—elections in Ukraine, followed by the signing of a major peace agreement.  

But things only go so smoothly in fairy tales.

Russians believe they can continue fighting at the same scale for the rest of the year. Documents for full mobilization have been prepared—both as a precaution and for psychological pressure. The economy is still capable of sustaining Russia’s military-industrial complex. Their goal is to pressure the United States.  

The U.S. continues making mistakes, operating solely within a business-oriented framework. Witkoff, who has reached Moscow, will likely propose cooperation, lifting sanctions, and joint profits from Russia’s stagnating projects. Moscow will nod along, avoid direct contradictions, and stall as much as possible to push the U.S. off its timelines. It may also put forward new conditions for Ukraine.  

"At some point—when the U.S. realizes it has trapped itself in Russia’s game—it will try to withdraw from mediation and shift responsibility onto Europe. Around that time, China may awaken with its own "peace initiatives," and the cycle will restart."

Another possibility is that, under U.S. pressure, Russia might make superficial concessions and agree to a "temporary truce" to speed up Ukraine’s election process. However, at the height of the campaign—when political tensions in Ukraine are at their peak—Russia could breach the front line again, aiming to crush Ukraine in a moment of internal division. This could be their "Plan B," which should not be dismissed.  

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While we often look for optimistic scenarios, in the short term, I still don’t see conditions aligning for a long-term peace deal by the end of the year. That’s why we must support the Defense Forces and donate to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They remain our most reliable protectors and negotiators.

Source

About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.