Russian economy enters stagnation — Ukrainian intel

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported the information.

Russia's economy has officially been acknowledged by the Kremlin as having lost momentum and entered a period of stagnation for the first time since the full-scale war against Ukraine began.

"The GDP decline appears steep and relentless: after 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, figures dropped to 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, 1.1% in the second quarter, and just 0.6% in the third quarter. This sharp slowdown demonstrates a systemic crisis that authorities are attempting to conceal behind euphemisms like 'planned cooling' or 'reducing overheating,'" intelligence officials noted.

They added that rhetoric from government officials and the central bank cannot mask the obvious deficit in both the federal budget and regional budgets.

"This is just the beginning of a long period of losses that Moscow itself acknowledges: Russians will have to 'tighten their belts' at least until 2042," the Foreign Intelligence Service emphasized.

Intelligence sources noted that the country is essentially doomed to permanent budget deficits.

"The key factor will be declining oil and gas revenues, which are calculated to shrink by 43% compared to 2019 levels. This trajectory signifies not temporary difficulties, but deep and prolonged economic degradation. Russia is entering a decade where recovery appears unlikely and financial losses inevitable," the Foreign Intelligence Service concluded.

• Previously, The Washington Post reported that Russia's economy in 2026 could face a crisis in the oil sector, rising debt, and the risk of a banking crisis amid new sanctions and falling energy revenues.