Russian claims about expanding drone production should be viewed with skepticism

According to Freuding, Russia is significantly expanding its production capacity, and the intensification of attacks will pose a serious challenge for Ukraine’s air defense system.

It is worth noting that earlier, so-called military experts in Ukraine were spreading reports that Russia was allegedly preparing to significantly intensify drone attacks on Ukraine and would be able to launch up to a thousand strike drones per night.

However, the Ukrainian Air Force urges caution when commenting on information about increased drone attacks by the occupying country on Ukrainian territory. According to Yurii Ihnat, head of the communications department of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, such reports are used by Moscow’s propaganda for its own purposes.

“I still want to urge experts, including Western ones, to be careful with these numbers, because, as you may have seen, Russian propaganda, the Zvezda TV channel, immediately pulled out a pre-prepared video,” Ihnat said.

However, despite statements about a possible increase to a thousand drones per day, in reality, there is no such mass production or use. 

Let’s look at the chronology of Russian drone attacks on Ukraine.

• On the night of July 21, Russia launched a massive air strike on Ukrainian territory, using 'kamikaze' drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as Kinzhal-type aeroballistic missiles. According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least 200 Shahed-type strike drones and 200 decoy drones were launched. 

• On the night of July 22, Russian invaders attacked with 42 Shahed-type strike UAVs and various types of decoy drones. 

• On July 23, Russian troops launched 71 Shahed-type strike UAVs and decoy drones of various types at Ukraine.

The statistics I have provided indicate that the Russians currently do not have the capability to attack our country’s territory using a thousand strike drones. The real number of drones that Russia can use simultaneously is much lower than the loud claims.

"Russia’s total capacity for producing strike drones was about 50,000 units per year. After the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the production facilities of the Russian military-industrial complex, Russia’s ability to create new drones has decreased."

Claims that Russia can use up to a thousand drones per day for strikes on Ukraine, in my opinion, are elements of Russian information and psychological operations. I will explain Russia’s drone production capabilities with specific examples.

The Yelabuga plant was built in 2023, with direct involvement of Iranian specialists. Its design capacity is 6,000 drones per year. After reconstruction, production capacity increased to 10,000. There is a similar enterprise, Kupol (Izhevsk), which produces up to 15,000 drones per year, and the Kronstadt plant (Dubna, Moscow region), which was struck by Ukrainian drones. Currently, Kronstadt has ceased its production activities.

"Therefore, Russia’s total capacity to produce Geran-2 and Geran-3 strike drones is about 45,000, up to a maximum of 50,000 per year."

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Russia produces up to 170 Shaheds and decoy drones per day, and by the end of the year, Russian drone production may grow to 190 units per day.

Ukrainian drones of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate have repeatedly struck not only plants that directly produce strike drones, but also places where their components are made. For example, the plant in Saransk, the only one in Russia producing fiber optic cable for drones, was attacked. Ukrainian forces also attacked the plant in Yelets, which produced batteries for UAVs. The plant in Tambov, which was attacked recently, was also engaged in drone production.

Recall that on June 24, the Atlant-Aero plant in Taganrog, Rostov region, which specializes in components for combat drones and control systems, was attacked.

After successful Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on production facilities in Iran, the ability to transfer both components and finished products has been minimized. Therefore, Russia is considering moving production to North Korea. This is the most likely scenario for further developments: the Russian Federation will try to scale up the production of strike drones for itself and for the North Korean army by using cheap labor in North Korea.

I note: there is nothing new in the enemy’s tactics regarding drone attacks on Ukrainian territory.

The Russians, as always, copy Ukrainian experience. In particular, they use the so-called “swarm” attack principle, when several dozen drones simultaneously target an objective to break through layered air defense. For example, during the last mass attack, up to 50 Shaheds attacked Kyiv. The idea of this tactic is that at least a few—five or more Shahed-type UAVs—will reach the target.

"For comparison: even one of the world’s most layered air defense systems, in Israel, which involved not only its own systems but also U.S., British, and Jordanian forces, shot down about 84% of aeroballistic and aerodynamic weapons. That means 16% still hit their targets. This is the performance of one of the best air defense systems, including the Iron Dome and modern American complexes."

It is important to understand: no air defense system in the world provides a 100% guarantee of protection. Therefore, it is not worth criticizing Ukrainian air defense for the fact that some enemy missiles or UAVs still hit their targets.

Regarding the geography of the strikes.

I draw attention to the fact that the number of attacks on western regions of Ukraine—Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Ternopil, Rivne, Lutsk—is increasing. This is an attempt by the Russians to show the civilian population that there are no safe rear areas. The goal is to pressure the civilian population and undermine morale.

Recall that the Kremlin “führer” in his speech on September 30, 2022, emphasized that during World War II, the anti-Hitler allies opened the so-called “Pandora’s box” by using carpet bombing tactics on the German cities of Cologne and Dresden.

That is, as early as 2022, the Russian dictator was hinting to Western countries about the possibility of strikes on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukrainian cities.

It should also be noted that the increase in the number and scale of strikes can be seen as an element of military-political pressure from Russia. This is an attempt to influence Ukraine’s political leadership by increasing terror against the civilian population.

Thus, information about Russia’s “plans” to increase the production of strike drones should be viewed critically. Such statements often have a double meaning and are used for pressure or internal propaganda. Not everything that is planned will necessarily be implemented, especially considering the effectiveness of Ukrainian preemptive operations and strikes on enemy production facilities.

Specially for Espreso

About the author: Dmytro Sniehiryov, military expert, co-chairman of the civic initiative Prava Sprava.

The editorial board does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.