Russian army approaches Chasiv Yar outskirts, but there is no threat of encirclement - ISW

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW estimates that Russian troops have advanced to within 1.5 km of Chasiv Yar. The Russian Defense Ministry stated on March 23 that Russian troops had captured Ivanivske (west of Bakhmut and directly east of Chasiv Yar), although ISW has not received confirmation of the occupation.

Military analysts point out that in November 2023, Russian troops launched a localized offensive in the Bakhmut direction to regain control of the territories de-occupied last year, but over the past four months have achieved only minor tactical successes west of Bakhmut.

“Russian tactical gains east of Chasiv Yar have not set conditions for an encirclement or envelopment of the settlement, and Russian forces would likely have to make notable tactical gains southeast and northwest of Chasiv Yar before pursuing an envelopment or encirclement of the settlement,” the report says.

Analysts also believe that the capture of Chasiv Yar would give Russian forces certain operational advantages.

“Chasiv Yar would also offer Russian forces routes of advance to Kostyantynivka, the southern edge of a major urban agglomeration in Donetsk Oblast that Russia has long viewed as a major operational objective in Ukraine,” the analysts believe.

The report states that in the spring of 2022, the Russian troops tried to create a large-scale operational encirclement of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Donetsk region in order to capture Sloviansk, so the Russian command may try this maneuver again in 2025 or later, and the advance west of Chasiv Yar will create additional conditions for this possible offensive.

“A Russian seizure of Chasiv Yar would be more operationally significant than the Russian seizure of Avdiivka but reiterates that ISW does not forecast that Russian forces will take Chasiv Yar rapidly if they can take it at all,” the ISW says.

• In early March, the Khortytsia forces said that Russia was making a "powerful push" to Chasiv Yar to open the way to Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk.
• DeepState analysts noted that the situation near Chasiv Yar was deteriorating.