Russia to exhaust entire stock of Soviet-era armored vehicles by mid-fall

This situation creates a four-month “window of opportunity” for the Russians and makes new, tougher international sanctions more relevant than ever. This was stated by British military analysts Michael Clarke and Jack Watling, whose views were cited by UK broadcaster Sky News on May 24, 2025.

The analysts consider Russia’s plans, including assaults on Kharkiv and Sumy, unrealistic, pointing to the depletion of Soviet-era armored vehicles in Russian hands.

Does Russia have any offensive power left?

Professor Clark does not believe Russia has the resources for a major offensive on Kharkiv or Sumy this summer, after the Kremlin previously attacked along wide front lines.

"I think the Russians have effectively used the forces they could have used for a strategic offensive," he said.

Four-month “window of opportunity” for Russia

Dr. Watling, a military expert at the RUSI think tank, claims that Russia will likely "softly start" its offensive rather than quickly maneuver with large mechanized units.

"The Russians lack the power capabilities," the expert noted.

"I think they should know this is their last year of buildup before they reach a plateau," Watling added, referring to Russia’s tank problems.

So far, Russia has been using its vast stockpiles of Soviet-era equipment, with only about 25% of its armored vehicles coming from new production.

"Russia’s reserves of outdated Soviet equipment, from tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to artillery pieces, will be depleted by mid-fall, so Russia’s ability to replace losses will fully depend on what it can produce from scratch," the analyst emphasized.

This makes the prospect of new sanctions from Europe and possibly America especially timely, added Watling.

• According to Bloomberg, the EU is eyeing a new sanctions package that could cut off over 20 Russian banks from SWIFT, lower the price cap on Russian oil, and ban the Nord Stream pipelines.