Russia talks. Dancing with Trump enters new phase

It seems an agreement was reached on the format of technical troop disengagement, methods of control and monitoring of the ceasefire regime. But the key question – where the demarcation line will pass – remained unanswered.

At the same time, as influential world media reported, the situation may come down to an agreement that a "free economic zone" will be formally created in Donbas, which presupposes demilitarization of the region. However, this zone will be controlled by Russian police. And, of course, there is no talk of any legal recognition by Ukraine of the lost territories.

I think a hybrid form of recognition will be applied to the individual occupied territories – some will recognize these territories as being under Russian control, some will insist on their exclusively Ukrainian status, and some may recognize them as Russian. For example, as stated in the U.S., they may recognize Crimea as "Russian" "for the sake of peace."

Approximately such a hybrid form of recognition (although the history and circumstances of the two wars are vastly different) exists, for example, regarding the Palestinian state, which some countries recognize and others do not.

"Ukraine may be ready to go for this hybrid option in case of providing Ukraine with ironclad security guarantees (it's still unclear which ones exactly) from the U.S., money for the country's reconstruction and a fast track to EU membership."

From Russia's side, in turn, the thesis has strengthened that the main demand is the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Donbas. This demand, of course, is outrageous, but it somewhat shifts the accents in Putin's delusions about "the root causes of the conflict," - which essentially made even a theoretical pause in the war impossible.

The control accent here is the absence of direct claims by Putin to interfere in the internal politics of post-war Ukraine. Although the theme of "oppression of Russian speakers" still sounds, there are no direct objections from the Kremlin that this demand will be reduced to formally bringing the treatment of national minorities in Ukraine to European norms.

What has been said above should not be perceived as either "optimism" or a forecast. This is simply a statement of new nuances in the rhetoric.

The main obstacle to peace remains as before – Putin's position, who simply cannot imagine what will happen to both him and Russia in the post-war period. The most optimistic post-war scenario for him is to give himself to Trump's mercy, who will pump Russian resources and regulate Russia's reintegration into world markets at his discretion... Such is the finale of the "special operation"...

Another difficult question, but already for Ukraine – the format of future elections. More precisely, let's say, the degree of their compliance with international standards. It seems too early to talk about this now, but this question will arise very sharply if a miracle happens and the war becomes less intensive.

But today the minimum tasks from such meetings are different. For Ukraine, the minimum task is to preserve the supply of American weapons for European money, for Russia – to avoid further sanctions. No one wants to anger the neurotic leader of the U.S. And therefore the dances with Trump are reaching a new level.

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About the author. Serhiy Taran, political scientist.