Russia prepares second phase of offensive in Kharkiv region - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War reports.

The reinforcement of its own forces in the Kharkiv region indicates that the Russian military is likely to continue to prioritize efforts to withdraw and dislodge Ukrainian forces from critical sections of the front line in eastern Ukraine and to create a “buffer zone” in the northern Kharkiv region.

“Russian forces likely intend to launch the second phase of their offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast following their intended seizure of Vovchansk, although positional fighting and possible Ukrainian counterattacks could require Russian forces to conduct another wave of intensified assaults in the area to complete the seizure of the settlement,” analysts believe.

The ISW suggests that Russian forces are likely holding back many of the reserves of the Northern Military Group, which is made up of elements of the 11th Army Corps, 44th Army Corps, and 6th Combined Arms Army - all part of Russia's Leningrad Military District (LMD). The northern grouping of troops, even at the upper limit of the stated final number, will not have the necessary manpower to conduct a successful operation to surround or capture Kharkiv.

• The day before, the head of the Kharkiv regional military administration, Oleh Syniehubov, said that Russia could launch an offensive in the Zolochiv area of Kharkiv region to engage as many Ukrainian troops as possible in the defense of the north of the region.