Russia planning large-scale provocation with casualties to derail peace talks — Ukraine intel

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported the information.

According to intelligence data, this operation has a comprehensive character. After the "drone attack" on Putin's residence, Russia has intensified the spread of new falsified information narratives to prepare domestic and foreign audiences for further escalation.

"With high probability, we predict a transition from manipulative influence to an armed provocation by Russian special services with significant human casualties. The expected timeframe is on the eve of or during the celebration of Christmas according to the Julian calendar. A religious structure or another object with high symbolic weight either in Russia or in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine may be selected as the location for the provocation," the statement reads.

To falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement, according to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, the use of fragments of strike drones of Western manufacture is planned, which may be delivered to the incident site from the line of combat contact.

Intelligence emphasized that the use of fear and committing terrorist attacks with human casualties "under a false flag" fully corresponds to the established tactics of Russian special services.

"Putin's regime has repeatedly applied this tactic inside the Russian Federation, and now this same model is being exported outward, which is indirectly confirmed by public statements of high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation," the intelligence concluded.

Background

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that on the night of December 28-29, Ukraine allegedly attacked Vladimir Putin's residence in the Novgorod region with 91 strike drones.

On the same day, December 29, U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin regarding Ukraine.

Trump stated that he had heard about the alleged attack by Ukrainian UAVs on the Russian dictator's residence, but at the same time he "knows nothing."

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the National Security Agency stated that Ukraine did not target Russian leader Vladimir Putin or one of his residences as part of possible drone operations.