Russia may be forced to negotiate with U.S. after summer offensive falters — political scientist

He expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.

"In my opinion, the feeling of this summer is the factor that prevents Trump’s efforts to end the Russian-Ukrainian war from succeeding. After all, it is in the summer that Putin plans to significantly strengthen his positions. Whether he will succeed is, firstly, a question for military experts, but I believe he will not, considering that the mobilization potential of the Russian army is not changing significantly. I think that Putin is probably being told that just a little more and the Russian army will break through the Ukrainian front. That’s why it is in the summer, when the conditions for an offensive are most favorable, that Putin is still hoping for something," Serhii Taran noted.

According to him, the Kremlin openly states what it hopes for: to completely capture the four regions that are included in the so-called Russian constitution. If they manage to conquer something more, for example, as they say, to create a buffer zone from the Sumy region, then Russian hopes for the summer campaign are not much greater.

"What is more interesting is what will happen next, regardless of the outcome of the offensive campaign. And what will happen next is that Putin will still be forced to talk to the U.S. The Kremlin has a soft rhetoric towards Trump, so they do not rule out that they will have to conduct serious negotiations about freezing the war. Putin speaks harshly about European politicians and the Ukrainian leader, but he is always cautious in his rhetoric towards Trump. In Russia, they say they will negotiate and make deals, because they understand that the U.S. can have influence. And this influence, in my opinion, is measured by the fact that the Republican wing still wants to put pressure on Russia. After all, Trump has a painful sanctions tool to pressure Russia, especially since the world oil price does not promise to be high," the political scientist commented.

In his opinion, if the price of oil continues to fall, it will be much more painful than all of Biden’s previous sanctions against Russia.

"All this, until the end of the summer campaign, will force Putin to think about some serious negotiations: either under the current conditions or adapted ones, but this will be after the summer campaign. And the summer will be difficult, although we are convinced that Russia will not be able to achieve anything significant to fundamentally change the situation in Ukraine," Taran summarized.

• On May 19, U.S. President Donald Trump had a phone conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine would immediately begin negotiations on a ceasefire and ending the war. The U.S. president also spoke with Zelenskyy.
• During a phone conversation with European leaders, Trump acknowledged that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not ready to end the war in Ukraine, as he believes he is winning.