Russia lies again: is energy ceasefire possible? Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Energy ceasefire

Right now, we are all trying to understand what "not using force in the Black Sea" really means and what the details of the energy truce agreed upon during the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia entail. However, it seems this may not materialize in practice, as yesterday the Russian Defense Ministry has already accused Ukraine of violating the ceasefire on energy facilities. Ukraine's General Staff is now forced to refute this falsehood.

The General Staff states that on March 25 and 26, the Ukrainian Defense Forces did not carry out drone strikes on energy facilities in Russia’s Kursk and Bryansk regions or on energy targets in temporarily occupied Crimea. According to the General Staff, Russia’s military is simply spreading false and baseless accusations to prolong the war and continue its propaganda — typical Russian attempts to deceive the world. In reality, there is nothing surprising about this; we expected Russia to act this way.

Effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range strikes

It is worth assessing Ukraine's capabilities and the consequences of its strikes on Russian targets in occupied territories and inside Russia. A fascinating study has been released by the Ukrainian project Frontelligence Insight and a group of volunteers who analyzed over a hundred satellite images.

The study covers more than 100 targets hit by Ukrainian long-range systems, drones, and missiles between September 1, 2024, and February 12, 2025. Here is the full report by Frontelligence Insight and Radio Free Europe, whose analysts also contributed to the research.

It turns out that at least 67% of the hundred Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets were successful. Most often, Ukrainian drones or missiles hit targets located relatively close to the Russia-Ukraine border or the frontline, primarily within a range of 100–150 kilometers. At distances of 150–200 kilometers and up to 500 kilometers, the hit rate is significantly lower.

We can see a chart showing the Russian regions that were most targeted by strikes. Returning to the range of hits, there were only three strikes at distances of 500–650 kilometers and four strikes at distances up to 900 kilometers. Notably, three of these four strikes targeted facilities in Chechnya.

At the beginning, Ukrainian strikes were primarily aimed at Russian military targets, but by the start of this year, the focus shifted towards oil and gas storage facilities.

Now, we can see a six-month timeline, with sectors highlighted in different colors: black represents oil and gas facilities in the Russian Federation, while dark orange or red indicates military targets. We can observe how the focus gradually shifted towards oil storage and oil refineries in Russia.

If we assess all these strikes on Russia's oil and gas sector, the losses amount to 658 million dollars. While this seems like a large sum, when we consider Russia's revenue from oil and gas exports, it turns out that in 2024, Russia earned 189 billion dollars just from oil.

In fact, these losses from Ukrainian strikes account for about 0.5% of Russia’s total revenue. Experts conclude that, if attacks continue, to amplify the effect, Ukrainian forces should regularly target large, unique cracking plants in Russia’s oil refining sector. This is because, at these modern refineries, restoring foreign equipment under sanctions would be virtually impossible.

Next, let’s talk about military targets destroyed by Ukraine's long-range drones and missiles. Here, analysts focused not so much on evaluating the impact of the strikes but on how the destruction of these targets affected the course of combat operations. The most noticeable effect on the battlefield occurred when Ukraine primarily targeted ammunition depots and military command centers, i.e., headquarters of various levels. This was mostly done using long-range drones.

However, when we talk about using cruise missiles and ATACMS, there are nuances: these strikes did not coincide with the timing of combat operations by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as decisions by Western partners regarding the provision of these missiles, their quantity, and restrictions on their use effectively prevented a synergy between target selection and Ukrainian military actions. Therefore, in any case, these components of long-range strikes with foreign weapons did not significantly affect the nature of combat on the frontline.

If the attacks continue, there is still significant potential for expanding strike operations from Ukraine's side. This could further impact Russia’s energy capacity and, in turn, limit the effectiveness of the Russian military on the battlefield.

HIMERA advanced tactical communication system for the Ukrainian Armed Forces 

Next, let's talk about new technological solutions that also impact the nature of combat operations. We often discuss various solutions implemented in Ukraine, such as robotic platforms, drone systems, and electronic warfare tools, but we rarely mention communication systems. However, communication systems are the backbone of command and control on the battlefield, ensuring effective interaction between commanders and subordinates. The resilience of communication systems significantly enhances combat capabilities.

In Ukraine, there are companies developing communication tools that are truly capable of operating in conditions of Russian electronic warfare, remaining resistant to enemy radio-electronic systems. These developments are constantly being improved, and new generations of radios are being created.

Just a few days ago, the well-known company HIMERA, which we will discuss further, unveiled a new generation of modern radios. Misha Rudominskyi, the co-founder of HIMERA, explained what these radios are capable of and what impact they will have on the nature of combat operations.

Nearly every quarter, we hold our meetings with this regularity, and each time he brings good news from the team. Just a few days ago, military personnel and some journalists attended a demonstration of the new radios from the company. These are the Generation 1 Pro radios.

"The presentation itself went wonderfully. We saw that this needs to be done more regularly, but overall, what can I say about the main things we showed. We demonstrated the Generation 1 Pro radios last year, and we have already delivered quite a large number of them. The essence of the demonstration was the entire tactical network around these radios. For a long time, we were known as a company that manufactures tactical radios, but this is just our flagship product. What we demonstrated, both at the training ground and later during the event we organized in a different format—actually in the city rather than at the training ground—was the operation of our radios along with repeaters, for both voice transmission and data transfer for situational awareness systems. That is, we synchronized both the voice and the coordinates of military personnel and equipment on the battlefield, as well as beacons and commands for different situational awareness systems. During these exercises, we used Combat Vision and Kropyva," he explained.

HIMERA's goal was to demonstrate that the solutions should not solve just one problem: meaning, it shouldn't be just a radio transmitting voice or just a system transmitting data. All of this can be part of a unified solution that simultaneously addresses several related military issues: "The communication system should be continuous and complete, covering all these tasks. We demonstrated this, and we are very satisfied with the results. In fact, several times we received feedback that it was incredible that everything worked during these exercises. These developments and manufacturing, including the software we worked with, as well as our products, are all Ukrainian-made and developed."

So, essentially, we are talking about a network that covers a battalion or even more, allowing, so to speak, all units to interact. The communication remains secure and cannot be suppressed. And through interaction with Starlink or other systems, signals and data can be transmitted over much greater distances, even beyond the tactical level.

"The previous generations of our solutions were focused primarily on very small groups. We’re talking about the level of up to a company, which was probably the highest level. Mostly, these were individual mobile groups or aerial reconnaissance units. Now, we are truly demonstrating the foundation of a system that is meant to become a full-fledged communication system at the battalion and brigade levels. And with integration into various Internet network connections, whether it’s Starlink, or indeed wired connections like fiber optics, we are now capable of connecting any front-line points with rear headquarters. Essentially, any network configuration is possible, and that’s what we are demonstrating. Of course, any product in our network includes all our basic features. That means AES-256 encryption, networking where each device acts as a repeater, and, of course, protection against moisture and dust," said Misha Rudominskyi.

But the biggest advantage highlighted is the autonomy of operation. It was noted that in alternative solutions, this important aspect is often underdeveloped.

"The greatest risks actually occur for the signalers who operate, repair, and charge the repeaters, etc. The biggest risk is at the moment of servicing. And we understood a long time ago, when we launched our HIMERA G1, that a big focus should be on the autonomy of device operation. We have an autonomous repeater, whose life and operation from a single battery charge lasts at least 14 days. And of course, this allows for much less frequent use and exposes the signalers to less risk, as they usually have to charge, repair, or replace these repeaters," noted the co-founder of HIMERA.

At the end of the presentation, I saw one of the messages stating that the company currently has the potential to produce 2,000 devices per month. And if necessary, production can be increased to 15,000 units per month.

"Yes, these are true numbers, we've been talking about this for quite a while. These numbers have been true for a long time. Well, it's clear that the biggest customer in our country, and the one operating the largest budgets, is the Ministry of Defense. So we communicate openly. And, of course, when you're a young company, we started our existence in 2022, there are always questions about the capabilities of mass production, systematic work, support for all these users, training, integration, and so on. And we openly state that we understand this. The essence of the communication system is that if it's not the only one, there are very few of them, and you usually rely on one main one. Right now, in our military, it's Motorola, and we demonstrate that as a company, we're ready to meet these challenges when it comes to production volume, systematic supply. Because when we talk about replacing the communication systems of our military, we're talking about hundreds of thousands of radios. So, if we were a company that could only produce 10,000 a year, we wouldn’t meet the needs. But we are indeed talking about supplying hundreds of thousands of radios to our military. And it's very important to communicate that this is what we are doing," he explained.

At the same time, Misha Rudominskyi noted that the feedback from the military is quite varied, starting from very positive.

"Communication is, in its own way, a religion in the military. Every signaler understands better than anyone how radios should be made, what functionality they should have. So, we get a full spectrum of feedback — from those who don’t like what we’re doing because they’re used to some format of use, and for example, they don’t like that we’re doing things differently, to absolute fans who support us, who say at every step, 'Let’s add new features, we’re ready to be beta testers.' So, it’s a full spectrum, but we try to communicate with everyone. Of course, we actively support those who are using our systems actively. We’re currently in communication with several large formations in our Defense Forces, who are interested in systematic use not only at the level of companies and battalions but also at the level of brigades, regiments, and above. It’s clear that there are still many things we need to do on our side to become a systemic solution, but we see the demand for it and see the readiness to move in that direction. If we made something that everyone liked, without any criticism, that would be very strange, I think almost impossible. So, we essentially have a full spectrum of feedback, and we’re very happy about it. And most of the criticism we receive, we analyze at least. Well, it’s clear that based on this, we make decisions on what makes more sense for quick implementation and what can be more long-term functions that we set," he noted.

The United States Air Force also tested HIMERA radios.

"The official feedback that we can share, we are still waiting for, but if we talk about verbal feedback, just in personal communication, it’s quite positive. Most of the tests have already been completed. We are just waiting for the official report, and they promised that there will be a part that we can, if not publish, at least discuss the results. There will also be a closed confidential part, to which even we won’t have access, and a more open part with results that we can share. Of course, we really appreciate the information they shared with us. Our understanding of how communication works in other defense forces, not just in Ukraine, has increased, which is important on our path to systematization and implementation, both in Ukraine and elsewhere. We hear a lot from our colleagues in America, implement it, and it allows us to provide a better product in Ukraine. Clearly, we use this to build a product line that will work in Ukraine, in the U.S., and with many of our other allies. We are really waiting for the official report, because it will be useful for our next steps. Initially, we’ve already received feedback that, overall, it was liked, and there will be recommendations on what to improve, change, or adapt. But here, the key point is the basic decision that this concept, this direction, is relevant. So far, what we’ve heard is that it is relevant, but recommendations will follow," said Misha Rudominskyi, co-founder of HIMERA.