Riyadh 2. Myth of quick peace

So, how does it work?

1. Putin offers the Americans a series of high-margin deals. I’ve written and said many times: Russia’s proposal essentially boils down to offering Americans not just access to Arctic extraction and development. They’re being given a role as intermediaries in trading sanctioned goods in unfriendly countries (primarily the EU).

"At the same time, Putin has decided to play along with Trump’s logic. That’s why he’s ready to talk—allegedly—even about shares in Rosatom and Roscosmos. And this is the main lever of pressure on Trump. At stake, I repeat, are tens of billions of dollars per year."

2. In exchange, he’s asking for two things: the lifting of sanctions and the recognition of Ukrainian territories as Russian. And meanwhile, he’s stalling for time.

Why?

• He wants to launch a summer military campaign, believing that Ukraine will collapse (and it’s the last campaign he can conduct without a new wave of mobilization);
• He needs to prepare Russia for a peaceful life and, in particular, resolve the issue of potential silent resistance from the 30–35% of ultra-patriots who already form the backbone of the anti-Putin patriotic minority. A minority that, theoretically, is ready for aggression;
• He’s preparing for the possibility that Trump stumbles. His main foreign policy game is to make himself simultaneously useful to both the U.S. and China ahead of their upcoming negotiations. This is a foreign policy factor we need to pay special attention to. And this game is being played globally.

I’ve already written about the game in the Black Sea. He’ll try the same in Iran, in Africa (particularly the Sahel region), and may attempt something in Latin America, though chances there are slim.

3. There will be no quick peace (its likelihood is low). But in addition to military and diplomatic efforts, we clearly lack an information campaign in the U.S. focused on the message: “Putin is manipulating Trump.” The point is, Putin has up to two months during which he can stall and find points of leverage over Trump that would allow the latter to turn a blind eye to these manipulations. Dragging it out longer would be unrealistic—it would become too obvious. At that point, Trump would have two options: either impose sanctions on Russia or shift focus to something else. We cannot allow him to shift focus.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political analyst.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.