Putin’s threatening ultimatum: hidden dangers of Ukraine pulling out of Donbas

In particular, the international agency Reuters released a list of Putin’s demands for Ukraine. According to sources, the dictator’s demands concern the territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions currently controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

According to Putin, Ukraine must withdraw troops from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In return, Russia would freeze the front line in the south (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia). Moreover, Moscow is also prepared to return small areas of the Kharkiv and Sumy regions of Ukraine that it currently controls.

Recently, following his visit to China, the Russian dictator declared that he was supposedly “ready to agree on an acceptable option” for ending the war against Ukraine. Otherwise, he said, he would “achieve his goals by military means.”

“It seems to me that if common sense prevails, it is possible to agree on an acceptable option for ending this conflict,” the Russian dictator said.

It is important to note that this concerns about 33% of the territory of the Donetsk region, which is currently controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. These positions are the most fortified strongholds of the Ukrainian army, established since 2014. In other words, Putin essentially declared his desire to take without bloodshed what he has failed to capture over 11 years of war.

In my opinion, withdrawal from Donbas carries numerous risks for Ukraine.

One such risk is that the cities remaining in the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donbas are industrial centers.

In particular, the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration is home to the main enterprises of heavy metallurgy, processing metallurgy, and chemical industries. This is the industrial heart of Donbas. Additionally, Sloviansk sits atop shale gas deposits.

The goal of the Russians in this case is to prevent Ukraine from achieving energy independence.

Moreover, the area around Siversk is rich in natural resources. The Yamske deposit of dolomite, quartz sand, construction sand, chalk, clay, and argillites is located and exploited there. This is exactly what attracts the invaders.

The Russians will make every effort to take control of all natural resources. So we can say that this is not a war about territory as such, but a war for control over natural resources. Thus, it is fair to say that Ukraine is deciding its political and economic future — plus its security. The occupying Russian forces have run up against the defensive belt of Ukraine and can no longer advance.

Security is another key factor in Donbas. Building a new defensive line outside Donbas will be very difficult due to the terrain.

This is a steppe zone. It will be quite hard to keep the situation under control, given the enemy’s complete air superiority — plus their advantage in barrel and rocket artillery. This creates very serious problems for Ukraine in establishing another defensive line along the conditional Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Let me remind you, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in an interview with Le Point, categorically rejected the idea of abandoning occupied territories such as Donbas or Crimea, arguing that it would bring no peace but only strengthen Russia’s position for new attacks.

“He invaded part of the east of our country in 2014 to use it as a foothold for full occupation of these regions. If tomorrow we somehow withdraw from Donbas — which will not happen — we will open up an unprotected space for Putin right next to a city of 1.5 million people — Kharkiv. He would also seize the industrial center of Dnipro. This would open up new opportunities for him,” the president said.

Specially for Espreso

About the author: Dmytro Sniehyrov, military expert, co-head of the NGO Prava Sprava.

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.