Putin’s only real offer to Trump may be ceasefire in Ukraine

It sounds like the start of a joke: “The presidents of the U.S. and Russia accidentally met in Alaska.” The meeting wasn’t planned at all — it happened because of a miscommunication from Witkoff and Donald Trump’s desire to continue his “peacekeeper series” by ending the war in Ukraine.

Here’s the situation in brief:

1. No one knows what will come of it— since it was never planned. Of course, Putin could be rereading medieval history notes, remembering how the Polovtsians were allegedly hunting for a “Russian trace” under Kyiv a thousand years ago.

But most likely, the meeting’s goal is to test how ready Putin is for negotiations — as described by Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. According to the U.S. president, the first two minutes will be enough to decide where to go next, and they will be decisive.

2. No breakthrough is expected, and the Americans openly say so.

Normally, such meetings are prepared well in advance, with technical details settled and groundwork done. At the actual summit, leaders finalize only the core political decisions. 

The Alaska meeting is entirely unorthodox because no one knows what will be discussed, so expectations are minimal. There is a risk, however, that Trump’s desire to “end the war at any cost” could mean Ukraine pays an unacceptable price.

3. Since Ukraine and Europe aren’t participating, any agreement involving territorial concessions would be meaningless — only Russia and Ukraine can implement such deals. 

The worst-case scenario is Putin convincing Trump to cut U.S. support for Ukraine, especially weapons funded by Europeans. But it’s unclear what valuable offer Putin could make for Trump to agree. Just a month ago, the U.S. got Europe to significantly boost defense budgets and buy more American arms, so Washington has little reason to give that up.

European leaders have not only voiced support for Ukraine but also backed Trump’s ceasefire mission. Given Trump’s commercial mindset, it’s highly unlikely he would reject European money. To get him to stop arms deliveries, Putin would have to offer something extraordinarily valuable.

4. The word “Arctic” has been floated— as in, Putin offering cooperation on Arctic oil. But this is unrealistic. 

The Arctic isn’t a business goldmine; it’s geopolitics. 

Resource extraction there is extremely expensive, viable only if oil prices hit \$150–200 a barrel. With the green transition underway, there’s little incentive. The U.S. already has plenty of geopolitical projects; it doesn’t need another.

That leaves only one thing of real value Putin could “sell” to Trump — a ceasefire in Ukraine.

5. There’s been speculation about “territory swaps”, with The Times even publishing maps. But Americans insist no deal would involve Ukraine’s capitulation. Kyiv has already dismissed suggestions of giving up non-occupied territories.

Europe’s position is also key: leaders back the U.S. ceasefire mission but reject capitulation. Negotiating one behind their backs would undermine any hope of a Nobel Peace Prize.

6. In reality, territorial talks under a ceasefire usually focus on defining a line of separation — clarifying control of each area to avoid a frontline running through city streets. While events may unfold differently, this fits the known facts.

Time is short. It’s possible they’ll agree to something Ukraine cannot accept, but the most likely outcome is no deal at all. Putin won’t agree to peace; Trump won’t buy into the Arctic plan. At most, they could declare an “air war truce” — stopping strikes on rear cities, which both sides could accept since these have shown little direct impact on the front over the past 3.5 years.

Source

About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.