Zapad-2025 exercises may precede major invasion — expert warns

In an interview with Espreso, Lakiychuk discussed the implications of the planned military drills, stressing that they have historically been a precursor to major military invasions, citing previous exercises like Zapad (West)-2021 and Kavraz (Caucasus)-2008.

'Back in December last year, Russia held an expanded meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry’s collegium. This is an official event where they sum up the past year and plan for the next. At that time, Putin and Defense Minister Belousov almost in unison discussed when to attack NATO, how long they would continue killing Ukrainians, and how many more personnel they would need for this. They were satisfied with the pace of mobilization in 2024 and stated that the same pace must be maintained in 2025. In this context, their mobilization machine’s capabilities and their plans align. The only thing they disagreed on was the budget — Belousov asked for more money, and Putin refused," said Lakiichuk.

According to the expert, the Russian army could lose its offensive potential if it suffers daily losses of 1,500–1,600 troops. Currently, their losses exceed 1,000 soldiers per day.

"Russia is facing issues in staffing its occupation army. These issues are not made public. For example, Medvedev says that successful operations require two components of mobilization: covering current personnel losses and creating reserves. If either of these components is missing, the operation is doomed to fail. We can’t influence the creation of reserves. 

There is a limit to Russia’s mobilization capacity, and if they try to recruit more personnel, the training level drops sharply. However, we can influence their current losses. Most Ukrainian analysts agree that if Russia’s current daily losses reach 1,500–1,600 troops, its offensive machine will simply collapse. Right now, their losses have decreased somewhat, but there was a time when they were losing personnel at exactly that rate," the expert emphasized.

Lakiichuk also noted that Putin still hopes to get over 30,000–50,000 trained troops from North Korea to join the war against Ukraine.

"Putin is now looking for alternative ways to replenish his army. Moreover, they are looking for reinforcements that won’t overload the mobilization machine. One of their options is North Korea. North Korea can provide trained, ready soldiers. That’s why Putin is trying to get not 10,000 but 30,000–50,000 soldiers from Kim Jong Un. That’s also why Shoigu keeps traveling to North Korea. 

Another option for the Kremlin remains the Zapad-2025 exercises. These are Russia-Belarus strategic command and staff exercises. Such exercises have always been precursors to major invasions — as was the case after Zapad-2021 and Kavkaz-2008. This should be taken into account, though it doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen. The question is whether Putin can take control of the Belarusian army," Lakiichuk concluded.

Russia-Belarus Zapad-2025 joint exercises

On October 23, 2024, Belarus's Ministry of Defense announced the joint military exercises with Russia, Zapad-2025, scheduled for mid-September 2025. NATO and the Lithuanian Foreign Minister have expressed readiness to respond to the planned drills.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has also warned that Russia is preparing something in Belarus under the cover of military exercises this summer.

Reports later indicated that Zapad-2025 could involve training for tactical nuclear strikes and the use of advanced missile systems like Oreshnik.

In late May 2025, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin confirmed that the primary maneuvers of the Zapad-2025 exercises would be relocated deeper within the country to reduce tensions along its western borders.