Putin aims to break Ukrainian morale, persuade West of Russian triumph - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

ISW noted that over the past eight months, Russian forces have significantly intensified attacks on Ukrainian cities and carried out seven large-scale strikes using drones and long-range missiles since January 2025.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin is leveraging long-range strikes against Ukrainian cities, aggressive rhetorical campaigns, and excessive pessimism in the West about the battlefield situation in Ukraine in a multi-pronged effort to degrade Ukrainian morale and convince the West that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and that supporting Ukraine is futile,” the analysts explained.

In addition, Moscow is running an information campaign urging Kyiv to make concessions on its sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, these demands are not new — they are in line with the Kremlin's old conditions and do not take into account changes on the battlefield over the past three years.

According to ISW, the current Russian offensive has significantly slowed as Russian forces continue to suffer manpower losses and increasingly rely on poorly trained and equipped infantry to achieve gains.

“Putin remains deeply committed to distracting from the realities of the battlefield situation, however, as bringing about the cessation of Western military assistance to Ukraine is Russia's only real hope of winning this war,” the Institute for the Study of War concluded.

• U.S. intelligence believes that Russian leader Vladimir Putin views the war in Ukraine as an existential struggle against the West. He is confident in his victory and prepared to fight at least until the end of 2025.