Russia's defeat prerequisite for Ukraine ceasefire — political analyst

Political analyst and journalist Timothy Ash stated this in an interview with the Studio West program host Antin Borkovskyi on Espreso TV.

“I believe it’s important to emphasize: even when the heavy fighting ends, there will be no peace in the near future — neither in Ukraine nor in Europe. We will find ourselves in a difficult transitional state, where it’s neither war nor peace. It will be something like a new form of Cold War. This reality will be long-lasting, complex, and uncomfortable for many. Final peace agreements after World War II were only reached in 1990, when Germany was reunified, 45 years later. And the Korean Peninsula still doesn’t have such a peace agreement,” he noted.

According to Ash, a major peace conference is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

“That’s improbable. However, a ceasefire is possible. Its precondition would be Russia realizing its defeat and feeling the painful consequences of the war. In that case, the scenario would likely resemble the postwar recovery of Western Europe in the 1940s–1950s. Ukraine would steadily grow stronger, integrating into the Western sphere and becoming part of the collective security system. This would create irreversible facts on the ground, which over time could lead to genuine peace. That is what we hope for most,” the political analyst believes.

He warned that a serious threat exists.

“As soon as a ceasefire is reached, many around the world will say: here is peace. Global attention will fade, tensions will ease, and the West will shift its focus to other global challenges. At that moment, Ukraine risks finding itself caught between a historic opportunity and a new vulnerability,” he concluded.