Outlines of Putin’s autumn strategy

1. Raising the stakes

So, while the West shows its fear of a potential clash with Russia, Putin has decided to use this fear to his advantage. Provocations in Poland and Estonia are part of a new tactic.

The goal: to show that the West’s refusal of his peace plan (transfer of Donbas and a frozen line) could result in a global war.

The provocations are also his response to attempts to increase sanctions pressure on oil. The goal: to shift the focus from sanctions and support for Ukraine to peace negotiations — or else, a major war.

2. Blackout

Despite failed attempts in previous years to trigger a blackout, I see that this year Putin will make a maximum effort. And I think he has a good chance of success. A blackout is also part of the final battle: destroying the rear. Obviously, a winter blackout will inflict very great damage on Ukraine and further demoralize those already hanging on by a thread. Goal: make Putin’s demands acceptable to an exhausted population.

3. Breakthrough in the Donbas

A breakthrough on the front is now the main task of the Russian occupying forces. To that end the Russian army has begun to expend human lives on previously unplanned scales. This again confirms that Putin will go all‑in, understanding that after this he is unlikely to be able to continue at the same pace as in the past two years. The goal of a breakthrough is to demoralize Ukrainian troops and leadership and force them to agree to his terms.

So: intimidate Ukraine’s partners with provocations, demoralize the population with a blackout, demoralize the military with a breakthrough on the front — this is Putin’s new formula for achieving his goals.

Source

About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, and publicist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.