NATO summit: key takeaways

In an era of presidents like Trump, prime ministers like Orbán, and overall uncertainty within the Alliance, Ukraine must set realistic goals for itself.

The key thing to understand is that under Trump’s presidency, America will never be a reliable partner. Regardless of his shifting rhetoric, the U.S.'s internal problems prevent it from remaining a stable global power capable of maintaining the previous level of international balance. In this era of “deglobalization,” we must approach everything pragmatically.

“The summit, in my opinion, was well orchestrated by Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General. Despite the curtsies to Trump and the nuances in public statements, the actual decisions are clear: Europe realizes that the United States is an unreliable partner and needs a new security framework.”

The main takeaway: Ukraine is not a recipient but an equal partner. The key observation: over the past three years, Ukraine’s positioning has fundamentally changed. While earlier support came mostly out of compassion, now - when the American military backing is no longer guaranteed - the situation is different.

Ukraine has a unique experience. No one else in Europe has such a trained army, a large-scale military industry, and expertise in modern warfare.

Today, most adequate European governments (Scandinavia, the Baltic States, Germany, France, and the UK) view Ukraine not as a recipient country but as an equal partner in security issues. Ukraine is becoming an unconditional part and pillar of the European security system.

This is reflected in agreements on arms production for and with Ukraine, arms supplies, and exchange of experience. Europeans perceive us as a key security partner, regardless of the behavior of the US administration. This is a fundamental shift that has been made possible, paradoxically, by Donald Trump, who has demonstrated the unreliability of the United States.

Why has Trump's rhetoric changed? The second, less significant, but important result is the change in the rhetoric of American partners. They managed to “squeeze” the mention of Ukraine into the final documents, and this is a victory, especially given that, unlike in 2022-2023, the United States now has an inadequate president.

Why has Trump softened? Three possible explanations:

1. He believes he scored a “brilliant victory” over Iran, though in reality he merely capitalized on Israel’s actions, and the matter remains unresolved.
2. His “crush” Vladimir Putin not only failed to help with the Iran deal but openly undermined the negotiations.
3. Trump is using warmer rhetoric toward Ukraine to get Putin’s attention and lure him back to the negotiating table, thinking Putin might be spooked by a potential “fallout” between them.

My expectations of Trump remain low. He will never be our ally. But if his erratic nature can be turned against Putin, that alone would be a brilliant outcome. Sanctions and arms purchases from the U.S. are achievable, but a partnership like under the previous administration is not.

Some believe that Putin, seeing the “kowtowing” to Trump, became convinced of the West’s weakness. But Putin has thought that way since 2014 - that’s why he launched the invasion in 2022. In reality, he faced a response he didn’t expect, which became a serious challenge to his regime and economy.

General conclusions and the future

1. Ukraine is at the center of European security policy. It is European, not Euro-Atlantic.
2. NATO membership will not be on the table until the war is over. It has never been a mechanism for ending it.
3. American troops will remain in Europe. Europe is not only a defense line against Russia, but also a huge logistics hub for US operations in the Middle East and Africa. There is no other quality place for this.

Based on realistic expectations, this summit was a success for Ukraine. It established a new configuration where we are a security partner of European countries. The change in Trump's rhetoric should be taken cautiously, without expecting quick action.

The struggle goes on.

Source

About the author. Yurii Bohdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications in business, public administration and politics.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.