May 2025 may mark major Russian offensive shift in Ukraine

Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko gave a brief frontline prognosis. 

"If anyone is hoping that Russian occupation forces will agree to a "ceasefire" or a reduction in the intensity of combat operations – these are just fantasies and nothing more," he underscored.

According to available information, last week nearly all commanders of Russian military groupings in Ukraine received directives to intensify and ramp up offensive operations. The so-called "Easter truce" was meant to be an interim phase to create conditions for further escalation.

"The main axis of attack for Russian forces will be the Lyman-Kupyansk direction, with intensified activity along the right bank of the Oskil River and the Chornyi Zherebets. But Russian goal is not the occupation of Kharkiv region or Kharkiv itself. Yes, they aim to gain control of the left bank of the Oskil and take Kupiansk and Lyman eventually, but not now. The current goal is to divert attention from Donetsk region, especially the Kostiantynivka direction, where Russian forces have concentrated the 8th Combined Arms Army and a part of the 51st," Kovalenko said.

Therefore, in the near future Ukraine will see a gradual increase in assault activity in the Lyman direction and around Kupiansk, especially along the right bank, led by the 69th Motorized Rifle Division and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. The Lyman axis will also face pressure at the cost of depleting not only the 20th Combined Arms Army but also through redeployment of forces and resources from the 1st Tank Army.

But this build-up of forces and resources along the Lyman-Kupiansk axis will be followed by a much more intense offensive on the Kostiantynivka front – and possibly on the Siverskyi front as well. Because closing the Toretsk foothold, where the 8th and 51st Combined Arms Armies are operating, opens the way for Russian forces to approach Kostiantynivka from the south. Meanwhile, actions of the 25th Combined Arms Army in the Lyman direction are aimed at securing the Serebryansky forest, while the 20th Combined Arms Army will flank from the north. The Siverskyi sector provides a direct strike toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

And on paper, it seems Russian forces have it all figured out. But in reality? The challenge comes from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who continue to hold the defense and maintain combat readiness despite all the Kremlin’s trickery.

"Still, we must understand that Russian forces' gradual intensification of activity in the second half of April will evolve into full-scale catalyzation of operations in May. Perhaps May 2025 will become the most difficult month of the entire year," Kovalenko concludes.