Lukashenko's threats: China's Vassal

1. Lukashenko had no choice but to react. After his furious remarks about possibly closing the embassy, Russia can't say anything to him. Not even behind closed doors.

2. Troops at Ukraine's border? It’s all for show. He’s not gearing up for war; he’s flexing his anger for the Russians. Right now, it’s just a game. If you look closely, you might even see him mocking Russia — especially with the Polonez missile system that Russia desperately wants. But Belarus, or rather, China, isn’t selling it to them. That’s why Russia is dealing with Iran now.

3. The real issue is Russian training and troop transfers. This isn’t happening yet, and moving troops isn’t an overnight task. But remember, Minsk doesn’t have the final say here — Beijing does.

4. To reiterate: China now plays the key role in whether Lukashenko lets Russia launch another invasion. So far, there’s no sign that China’s giving the green light.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, a political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.