Losing in Ukraine, Putin taking his revenge on Europe

1. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing losses to our country, yet Moscow has achieved rather modest success compared to its initially declared goals and is paying a disproportionately high price for this limited outcome. There is currently no reason to hope for an end to Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. At the same time, Russian advances on the Ukrainian front have clearly stalled.

“Moscow needed to find a new strategic space for maneuvering to demonstrate success to its partners and the Russian population. Ukraine had become too constrained and costly for this purpose.”

2. Due to a range of circumstances, NATO’s European countries are a convenient, well‑fed and well‑groomed victim on which Russia today wants and can, with impunity, ostentatiously demonstrate its power. It does so theatrically, effectively, and with great relish. By showing dominance over a wealthy but helpless target, Putin bolsters his standing with external partners and his own population. This is an obvious Kremlin success amid other failures. Demonstrating that success is necessary to win partner support and mobilize his population to continue the war — and Europe is now an ideal target for that.

“3. The U.S. is currently showing enough detachment from European affairs to allow Russia to continue its unpunished advances against the “plump victim.”

Thus, Russia’s active measures against European countries will continue and increasingly take on a more threatening character. This will persist until an appropriate symmetrical or asymmetrical response comes — either from Europeans themselves or from the U.S. So far, we see confusion and helplessness, which encourages the Kremlin to escalate its actions in the European direction.

Source

About the author: Mykhailo Basarab, political scientist, Ukrainian Armed Forces officer.

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