Long-range missiles set to become key tool of special operations – expert

Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies and co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium, told Espreso.

“Without exaggeration, special operations have become one of Ukraine’s strongest trump cards in the war against Russia. Their asymmetry, surprise, scale of damage and systematic nature offset the incomparable resources of the two countries. But there is something that could elevate them further—missiles,” he noted.

The expert pointed out that in the summer of 2025, Ukraine’s Defense Forces effectively tested a new “deep strike” concept against Russia. In June, an Iskander launcher was damaged directly on its launch site. In August, the Defense Forces intensified attacks on Russian oil refineries and even twice halted operations of the Druzhba pipeline. Early that month, Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery 2,000 kilometers beyond the border, in Russia’s Komi Republic. Finally, on Independence Day, August 24, 2025, strike drones hit one of Europe’s largest gas processing plants—Russia’s Gazprom Ust-Luga.

“At the same time, despite obvious positives for Ukraine, analysis of these summer 2025 special operations and deep strikes reveals a clear weakness in strike capabilities. The Defense Forces managed to bypass or break through enemy air defenses and achieve precision, but the power of these strikes was clearly insufficient,” Badrak commented. Successful drone attacks, he stressed, took place against the backdrop of Ukraine’s “missile impotence” and U.S. restrictions on using Western missiles against Russian targets.

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“Despite real successes, the potential of special operations remains far from realized. Practically throughout the summer of 2025, there was no mention of operations conducted with long-range missiles. And that significantly limited Ukraine’s capabilities,” Badrak emphasized.

According to him, the U.S. approval at the end of August to supply Ukraine with over 3,000 ERAM air-launched missiles with a range of up to 450 kilometers will not enable truly long-range strikes. For powerful, large-scale attacks, Ukraine would need several thousand missiles, at least 10 percent of them ballistic, and a strike reach of no less than 700 kilometers.

Domestic missile production and ensuring the military has the combat capabilities for long-range strikes should be the Defense Ministry’s priority, Badrak argued. He noted that information already exists about a dozen Ukrainian missile types, but “missile questions” are only multiplying.

“Perhaps the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile will become a unique weapon if it proves capable of reaching targets and striking them precisely. Let’s hope so, though from the context it’s clear we’re talking about 2026,” Badrak said. 

“Without doubt, future special operations will be diverse. But a key role will certainly be played by the mass use of unmanned automated systems with the most powerful possible warheads. In other words, it is missiles as strike weapons that could become the main toolkit of tomorrow’s operations,” the expert concluded.