Ukrainian forces target Russian air defense systems to prepare for F-16 deployment - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

On July 16, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian troops had struck an S-300 position in the occupied Donetsk region and that in total, Ukrainian troops had destroyed 20 S-300 launchers and 15 radar stations in an unspecified period of time. Syrsky published geolocation footage showing Ukrainian forces using cluster munitions to strike Russian air defense systems located east of the occupied Manhush in Donetsk region.

ISW reported that the Council of Deputies of the Krasninskoe village settlement in the Volgograd region of the Russian Federation reported the elimination of the commander of the Russian S-300 battery as a result of a Ukrainian air defense system strike on a position in the Kharkiv direction at 1 p.m. local time on July 12.

“The Russian S-300 commander more likely died in a Ukrainian strike against occupied Mariupol, as the commander's reported time of death is within 15 minutes of a reported strike against a Russian S-300 system near Mariupol on July 12. ISW has not observed indications of a Ukrainian strike against Russian air defense assets in Belgorod Oblast on July 12.ISW is unable to confirm the location of the July 12 strike,” the report says.

The deputies also reported that the S-300 battery commander killed on July 12, in a recent letter, noted that over the past two weeks, Ukrainian strikes on Russian air defense assets have killed two Russian air defense battery commanders. ISW suggests that this refers to a certain period in June - early July 2024.

On July 16, Syrskyi said that Ukrainian troops were systematically destroying Russian air defense assets to create conditions for Ukraine's successful use of strike aircraft, and noted that “soon F-16s will arrive. 

“The F-16 deliveries to Ukraine will likely begin in small numbers, and materiel and training constraints will likely prevent Ukrainian forces from leveraging fixed-wing airpower at scale in 2024,” as ISW has previously noted.

Ukrainian officials have stated that Ukrainian forces also intend to use the F-16 and other aircraft as part of a broader air defense umbrella for Ukraine. However, as ISW has previously noted, Ukraine will need to reduce Russia's overall air defense capabilities in order to protect the F-16s and properly integrate them into Ukraine's combat operations.

• Deputy Head of the President's Office Ihor Zhovkva assured that Ukraine already has schedules for the delivery of F-16 aircraft from partner countries.