Istanbul negotiations: no ceasefire in near future

While Ukraine proposes to sign a ceasefire agreement, Russia puts forward fantastic demands that Ukraine cannot even theoretically sign.

After all, Russia's “international recognition” of five Ukrainian regions is not only a formulation without any specifics (by whom they should be recognized), but also a demand that is not addressed to Ukraine at all. Ukraine, even if it can recognize something, can only do so on its own behalf.

As expected, Putin has put forward unacceptable conditions for a ceasefire. All of these demands have been voiced many times before - now they have simply been put on paper. Russia's recognition of five Ukrainian regions, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from them, and a reduction in the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are three key points that cannot be accepted under any circumstances. 

“It would be easier to invite Putin to Kyiv and offer him an office on Bankova Street, which is what we are actually being offered, but this “message” has been stretched over three pages of text.”

This explains why the round of negotiations ended so quickly. There is not much to discuss there. The only thing surprising is the excessive secrecy with which the Russian version was not provided in advance. Probably, for graduates of the KGB school, the style of special operations is familiar, even in such banalities as putting on paper all the nonsense that Putin repeats year after year.

Obviously, there will be no ceasefire in the near future. As in the past, Russia will try to break the Ukrainian defense during the summer campaign. Ukraine, for its part, will continue to defend itself and will try to make the war more technological to compensate for Russia's manpower advantage. But most importantly, the war will continue.

The U.S. administration's attitude to the situation remains key. It is obvious that Russia is not interested in a real ceasefire and continues to massacre Ukrainians. The proposal for a 2-3 day ceasefire in certain areas of the frontline is unlikely to be accepted - there is no mechanism for determining the boundaries of such areas, no way to monitor compliance with the ceasefire, and no algorithm for responding to provocations. If Russia really wanted a ceasefire, it could have done it on its own-at least at the front-and organized the removal of the bodies of the dead. But what they are doing looks more like an imitation of peacefulness, so that the word “truce” appears in the media, rather than mentioning the continuation of the killings.

Therefore, the basic scenario is that the war will continue and enter an even tougher phase. So don't forget to support the Ukrainian military. If you are not at the front, support those who are fighting and volunteers you trust with donations. Now is definitely not the time to relax and lose focus on the main thing - supporting the Ukrainian soldiers.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Ukrainian MP

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog or column authors.