Is Polish hatred of Ukrainians steering Poland onto Orbán's path?

The problem is that this is not only unpleasant for us, especially for Ukrainian refugees in Poland, but also extremely negative for Poland itself. For its economy.

The populist frenzy in Warsaw was made possible by the Polish economic miracle. Which is truly a miracle. And a very economic one. Poland, which was a poor country in the 1980s, has caught up with Japan in terms of GDP per capita. If someone had said this in the late 1980s, they would probably have been sent to a mental hospital. But now it is a fact. And there are three components to this Polish economic miracle. There are probably more, but there are three basic things at its core.

The first is the reforms of Balcerowicz and Walesa. What they were unable to do in Ukraine, but did in Poland. For which the Poles themselves still hate Balcerowicz and his team, and Walesa was not elected because no one likes shock therapy. They like the results, yes. But they still don't like the doctors. 

The second is EU accession and EU money. This means open markets and billions of dollars in subsidies.

And the third is Ukrainians who went and are going to Poland in search of a better life.

"Of course, the influence of these three components varies. Ukrainians had much less influence than EU money or Balcerowicz's actions. However, since 2017, when visa-free travel began, the Polish economy has started to gain a huge competitive advantage from Ukrainian workers."

What happened? Visa-free travel was introduced, which not only allowed Ukrainians to fly to Vienna for coffee, but also gave them the opportunity to work legally in Poland for 90 days. As a result, the Polish market, which itself suffered significantly from the outflow of people in the 1990s, saw a significant supply of labor, which had a very positive impact on the economy.

Of course, this is where Polish chauvinists should come in and start talking about migration and how it is harmful. But the thing is that, according to absolutely all studies by economists, migration is a positive factor for the economy, curbing inflation and leading to more rapid GDP growth.

Moreover, it does not harm the local population, which also benefits. Even the poorest. And this is not an opinion. It is a fact confirmed by research. Just as studies confirm that, despite the frightening images, migration does not even lead to an increase in crime. And this also applies to the numerous reports by the Polish right wing about Ukrainians doing something wrong in Poland. It's just that when a Pole does something wrong, it doesn't make the news. But when a Ukrainian does, it has to be shouted from the rooftops. And of course, when there are millions of people, some of them turn out to be not so good, some get into trouble, and some commit crimes. But it's a matter of focus. Exclusively.

So, even before the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian workers who worked in Poland for 90 days and then spent 90 days lying on the couch at home significantly helped the Polish economy. What can we say about the influx of people after 2022 who came, got jobs, consumed, and opened businesses? They were very active in opening businesses. Even the classic example of Ukrainians driving expensive cars, which supposedly makes Poles hate all Ukrainians (are they jealous or something?), is an example of people spending crazy amounts of money in Poland. Which, of course, is very beneficial for the Polish economy itself.

"What will happen if Ukrainians continue to face poor conditions in Poland? They will simply move on. Perhaps some will return to Ukraine. Of course. But most will leave. Especially those highly mobile Ukrainians who work remotely and settled in Warsaw and other Polish cities at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. They will simply move on."

Who will suffer from this? Poland itself. Because if the influx of Ukrainians helps the Polish economy, their outflow will be disastrous. And migrants are needed by the economy. But will other migrants come to Poland, given the high level of racism and chauvinism in Polish society? The question is rhetorical.

"If you don't like Ukrainians, who share your faith, skin color, and speak almost the same language, then you are unlikely to be able to stomach Africans or Asians. And that means your economy will start to suffocate. And that, in turn, means that the Polish miracle will cease to amaze."

Therefore, by attacking Ukrainians, Poland is primarily attacking itself. Ukrainians will leave, but the problems will remain. And there will be more of them. So when the new Polish president pays so much attention to the issue of history, he would do well to study recent history and the example of Orbán.

Why Orbán's path? Because Hungarians were the leaders of reform in the 1990s. And, of course, the wealthiest country of the former Soviet bloc. But then the corrupt and populist Orbán came to power. And somehow it always turns out that if you are a populist, you are also corrupt. It's like magic. And now Hungary is the poorest country in the EU. It looks like the Poles may repeat this path.

It seems that Ukraine and Poland once chose the ideal option. We forgive and ask for forgiveness. For everything that happened in the past. And there was a lot of everything. But for some reason, the Poles decided that it did not suit them. Well, that's their choice. They are adults...

Will Ukraine benefit from this? Right now, only if some Ukrainians return to Ukraine. While the war continues, we can hardly expect a significant return. Afterwards, some may return. But in the long term, we are doomed to fight with Poland for labor migrants. And such an inadequate Poland creates more opportunities for us. Because we can be a more attractive country. But here the question is whether our homegrown populists will enter the arena. And that is another very painful issue.

Source

About the author. Serhii Fursa, investment expert, blogger.

 The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.