He said this on the Espreso TV channel.
"The Kerch Bridge is actually the main logistical artery that provides all the necessary logistical support to three groupings of troops in southern Ukraine at once - the 'Crimea Defence' group, the 'Dnipro' group - the left-bank Kherson region, partly Zaporizhzhia region, and the 'East' group - Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. This is almost 200,000 personnel, thousands of vehicles, tanks, artillery, and so on. This huge mass needs to be supplied with everything they need every day - 24/7 - from ammunition to fuel and lubricants. Of course, there is also rotation, compensation for losses of human resources, compensation for losses of mechanized resources, and so on," the observer explains.
According to Kovalenko, if the Crimean bridge loses its functionality, the enemy's lack of military equipment will have a significant impact on the frontline. At the same time, it will not be possible to compensate for this by land or sea.
"Therefore, in about a month and a half, this entire grouping of troops will experience an acute shortage that will not allow them to attack and effectively conduct defensive operations. So, the supply system for this large grouping of troops will be destroyed.
And after that, counter-offensive actions will begin in the south of Ukraine: first, Zaporizhzhia or the left-bank Kherson region, depending on the situation, but with access to the administrative boundaries of the temporarily occupied Crimean peninsula. We can talk about creating a complete isolation of the peninsula and a kind of step-by-step destruction of all the facilities of the Russian occupation forces on the peninsula. And in the conditions of isolation, a large grouping of troops will not be able to exist there for a long time, so Crimea will be liberated before Donetsk and Luhansk regions," summed up the military and political observer of the Information Resistance group.