Illusions about quick war end can be dangerous

1. No sanctions or other economic levers will force Putin to stop the war. The toughest packages were imposed back in 2022, and they remain in effect. Each subsequent one merely supplemented the previous with separate details. Everything we have seen over these years allows us to conclude: Putin is ready to endure any economic hardship, but he will not roll back the war.
2. For over a year, Putin has been convinced that he is currently winning. In his worldview, Ukraine’s Armed Forces will “collapse within two months,” and Ukraine’s allies are tired and unable to sustain support for long. Therefore, there is no point in stopping “half a step from victory.”

3. Only Ukraine’s Armed Forces can stop Putin. In theory, Russia’s partners could also do this—by ending military-technical cooperation. But China has not done so before, and it is unclear what would have to happen for it to do so now.

Thus, regardless of what new sanctions the U.S. president announces today, tomorrow, or next week, they will not influence the course of the war. Only two factors can have a real impact: expanding military aid to Ukraine and finding new ways to pressure China so that it, in turn, pressures Russia.

As far as can be understood, the U.S. tariff move against India is aimed solely at showing China the seriousness of Washington’s intentions. At the same time, there is a calculation that India may join in pressuring Putin to end the war. This may yield results. But even if it does, nothing currently indicates that it will happen in the near future.

Therefore, there is no point in relaxing and comforting ourselves with the thought that the war will end soon. Yes, we all long for peace. But if we constantly feed ourselves illusory hopes, the disappointment from their inevitable collapse can lead to depression. And depression during war does not help.

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About the author: Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Parliament of Ukraine

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