If Trump stops military aid to Ukraine, he loses his only leverage over Putin – journalist Portnikov

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"Donald Trump needed the minerals agreement for one reason — to prove to his audience that he wasn't just handing financial aid to Ukraine without justification and could even reverse the funding. After meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump was furious that Zelenskyy did not 'show courtesy,' so he halted military aid to Ukraine and cut off intelligence sharing. This move punished not only Ukraine but also Trump himself, since military aid was one of his few tools to pressure Putin," Portnikov explained.

According to him, Trump lacks real short-term leverage over Putin. Talks of tariffs and duties are ineffective because Russia barely trades with the U.S.

"Energy sanctions would take too long to have an impact. That left military aid to Ukraine as the only real tool of influence. If the U.S. stops helping Ukraine, what does it even have to discuss with Putin? Why would Putin take them seriously? He can continue fighting without acknowledging their existence," the journalist added.

Portnikov noted that the minerals deal has disappeared from discussions, likely because Trump hopes he can persuade Putin to agree to a truce, avoiding the need for new aid packages to Ukraine. Yet, even without the minerals agreement, military aid was restored, proving it was just a political cover.

In the future, when it becomes clear that Russia has no interest in peace, the U.S. may shift its rhetoric. They could frame aid to Ukraine as a strategy to counter Putin or revisit the minerals deal to justify their actions to voters.

Putin has said he is open to a ceasefire, but only if Ukraine halts mobilization and refuses military aid. Trump won’t agree to that — it’s not a ceasefire, it’s surrender.

"U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that every country has the right to self-defense. Clearly, this isn’t a ceasefire; it’s capitulation. If we declare a ceasefire for 30 days and stop military aid, what happens when that period ends? Even if it lasts 45 days or more, the principle remains — if Ukraine stops receiving aid, it’s effectively being demilitarized under the guise of a ceasefire. Imagine Russia gaining a technological edge in missiles, tanks, aircraft, and drones in a matter of weeks. Then February 24, 2022, repeats itself with another full-scale invasion. If Russia breaks the ceasefire and aid resumes, it might arrive too late, there might be no one left to support. Why should Ukraine accept this? It makes no sense. A ceasefire, unlike a peace treaty or even an armistice, cannot come with such conditions," Portnikov concluded.

• CIA Director John Ratcliffe officially announced on March 5 a temporary halt in weapons and intelligence support to Ukraine.
• On March 7, American aerospace company Maxar Technologies disabled access to its satellite imagery for Ukrainian users.
• On March 11, Ukrainian and American delegations met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. After the meeting, the U.S. announced it was lifting the pause on intelligence sharing and restoring security assistance to Ukraine.