He expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.
"The oil refining sector is quite important - it actually has three categories. The first is the export of oil and energy products, not only oil, but also gas and condensates. And exports are very important for Russia, because they are revenues and budget replenishment. The budget directly finances the war against Ukraine. The second category is domestic demand, that is, for civilians, for commercial use, and so on. The third category is the most important, but the most difficult, in terms of its impact on our part - it is the army and military component, i.e. the invading Russian forces, which need constant round-the-clock supply of material components, as well as fuel and lubricants," Kovalenko explains.
According to him, if exports begin to suffer from a shortage of products they receive, the budget suffers. At the same time, there is a shortage for Russians and their commerce: "But for Russia, two components are predominant-the first and third, and the second is intermediate, it is not particularly worrying. When there is a lack of export capacity to fill the budget, and when there is a lack of resources to fill the third military category, they begin to have problems with the supply of fuel and lubricants to their troops.”
The military-political observer is convinced that Russia will limit the civilian and commercial component.
"On the other hand, we have the ability to influence deep into the territory of the Russian Federation, 1,000 km from the border with Ukraine, and this allows us to cover more than 50% of oil refineries. This suggests that we can not only significantly influence the efficiency of their logistics for the supply of fuels and lubricants, but also that we can stop the effective operation of this industry altogether. After some time, the invading Russian forces will begin to feel this impact, because, just for a moment, an average tank needs up to a ton of fuel and about 100 kg of lubricant per day if it is constantly in use. As of today, the Russian troops have about 3,000 tanks in the combat zone, and these are just tanks. I'm not talking about armored combat vehicles, artillery, road transport and much more," Kovalenko summarized.